Oil and Gas Price Forecast for December 2026: Brent, TTF and the Iran War

Where are oil prices now?

Oil has had its sharpest fall of the war. Brent settled at $94.62 on 4 November, down 8.7% in one session, and WTI at $88.12 ^[1]. On the morning of 5 November Brent traded near $93.9 and WTI below $88, a fourth day of losses ^[2]. Brent is down almost 18% in a week, to a two-month low ^[3].

The trigger was political. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and traders expect more pressure on Washington to settle the war with Iran ^[1]. Diplomacy had already moved prices: Brent fell 7.63% on 2 November after Iran signalled openness to Qatari mediation ^[4]. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the two sides remain far apart, however ^[5].

Physical supply has also improved. Reuters reported that Gulf oil exports recovered to about 17.1 million barrels a day in October, around three-quarters of pre-war levels, and JPMorgan estimated a market surplus of about 1.4 million b/d that month ^[1]. Against that, commercial oil stocks in major consuming countries are near 15-year lows, which leaves little buffer if supply is disrupted again ^[6].

US data have given mixed signals. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 5.27 million barrel fall in crude stocks in the week to 30 October, but the official figure reported by Reuters was a smaller draw of 865,000 barrels ^[1]. US fuel demand reached its highest level in a year, while distillate stocks fell again ^[1]. Strong demand and low stocks are why most forecasters still expect prices above today's level by December.

What do forecasters expect for December?

Most published forecasts were made before this week's fall, so they sit above the current price.

• Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 on 2 November and its 2027 average to $88, citing persistent risks to physical supply ^[4].
• The EIA forecast Brent at $105 for the fourth quarter in its October outlook, with a 2026 average of $96 and $84 for 2027. It assumed Middle East flows stay constrained through the quarter ^[7].
• JPMorgan sees about $64 in 2027 if the conflict ends, but about $87 if Hormuz stays constrained, adding roughly $7–8 for every extra month of disruption ^[7].
• Goldman's October note gave an upside case of $125 in December if infrastructure is damaged or shipping attacks intensify ^[7].

The EIA publishes its November outlook on 10 November ^[7]. Expect it to reflect October's recovery in Gulf exports.

European gas: the bigger risk this winter

Gas, not oil, is Europe's main exposure this winter. The Dutch TTF benchmark traded around €28 per megawatt-hour in January and touched €97.64 in late October, its highest since December 2022 ^[8]. December TTF fell more than 10% to €93.18 on 2 November on hopes for more LNG shipments ^[9].

Storage is the problem. EU sites were 74.6% full at the start of November, and Germany only about 61%, around 14 points below a year earlier ^[9]. Wood Mackenzie expects EU storage to fall to around 17–20% by the end of March in a normal winter ^[8].

Goldman raised its first-quarter 2027 TTF forecast to €74 from €44. It estimates first-quarter TTF near €150 if Gulf LNG exports stay at 25–30% of normal and the winter is cold, and around €45 if supply recovers and the winter is mild ^[10]. Qatar damaged 17% of its export capacity and Gulf LNG exports averaged 33% of pre-war levels in October ^[10]. Wood Mackenzie expects the global LNG market to stay tight until autumn 2028 even if the war ends this year ^[8]. Goldman estimates that TTF would need to average €70 in 2027 if Gulf exports stay restricted through the winter, and €104 if they stay below 35% of normal for the whole of next year ^[10].

Diesel and refined products

Refined products remain tighter than crude. In the EU, consumer diesel prices rose 35% between 23 February and 5 October, and petrol prices 23% ^[11]. Lower crude prices will pass through to pump prices only slowly, because distillate stocks are low on both sides of the Atlantic. Our winter diesel price forecast covers the outlook in detail.

Three scenarios for December

These are Alupetra's working ranges, based on the forecasts above. They are not trading advice.

1. Talks advance, Hormuz flows keep recovering. Brent $80–90, with the risk premium continuing to fall towards JPMorgan's peace-case path ^[7]. TTF eases towards €70–80 but stays high because storage is low ^[10].
2. Stalemate. No deal, but no major new attacks. Brent $90–105, in line with Goldman's and the EIA's views ^[4,7]. TTF €85–100, depending on the weather.
3. Renewed escalation. Strikes on infrastructure or shipping resume. Brent $110–125, as in Goldman's upside case ^[7]. TTF above €120 if a cold spell coincides with lower Gulf LNG ^[10].

On the evidence of this week, the market is pricing something between scenarios 1 and 2. With inventories this low, the risk of a sharp upward move remains if talks fail ^[6].

What to watch in the coming weeks

• 10 November: the EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook ^[7].
• Qatar-mediated talks: any agreement on Hormuz shipping and the US naval blockade ^[4].
• Weekly EU storage data: the pace of winter withdrawals ^[9].
• Weather: a cold January would test Europe's gas balance most ^[8].
• Gulf export data: whether the October recovery in flows holds ^[1].

Our Hormuz shipping tracker is updated every week.