https://www.alupetra.com/Energy market analysis and the Energy Daily Brief from Alupetra.enTue, 27 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000https://www.alupetra.com/news/brief-2026-10-27.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/news/brief-2026-10-27.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000Hormuz attacks damage a record number of tankers as regional tensions persist, while a major US gas consolidation and European winter supply concerns reshape commodity markets.AsiaBrentCanadaCrudeOilEuropeHormuzIranLNGMergersAcquisitionsMiddleEastNaturalGasOilPricesShippingUnitedStatesUpstreamhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-mri-semiconductors-space.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-mri-semiconductors-space.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The loss of Qatari output in March 2026 removed about a third of the world's helium supply. Users do not all feel the shortage equally. We look at where helium goes, how hospitals, chipmakers and laboratories are coping, and who comes first when suppliers ration deliveries.HeliumHeliumShortageMRISemiconductorsHealthcareSpaceIndustryIndustrialGasesSupplyChainQatarhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/who-buys-iranian-oil-customers-trade-flows.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/who-buys-iranian-oil-customers-trade-flows.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000China's independent refiners have bought the large majority of Iran's crude exports in recent years, a sharp change from 2017, when buyers ranged from India, South Korea and Japan to Türkiye and Europe. In 2026 the regional conflict and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports cut China's imports of Iranian oil to their lowest level since January 2023, and buyers have turned to Iraqi, Qatari and other grades. We explain who buys Iranian oil, how its pricing has shifted and what this means for Asian crude markets.IranOilIranChinaTeapotsOilTradeAsiaCrudeOilSanctionsIndiahttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/urea-outlook-2027-china-india-capacity.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/urea-outlook-2027-china-india-capacity.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Prices in India's urea tenders swung from more than $900/t in April to the mid-$300s in October as Gulf supply was disrupted, demand fell and Chinese exports returned. The 2027 outlook depends on a few swing factors: China's export quotas, India's tenders, Russian and Egyptian supply, European gas costs and new plants in Nigeria and India. We set out what the published outlooks say and the scenarios they imply.UreaFertiliserFertiliserPricesChinaIndiaNaturalGasMarketOutlookAmmoniaRussiahttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-2026-gulf-supply.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-2026-gulf-supply.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Qatar produced about a third of the world's helium in 2025, all of it from LNG processing at Ras Laffan. The 2026 Gulf conflict halted that output, damaged two LNG trains and left helium containers trapped behind a disrupted Strait of Hormuz. We look at how helium is produced, who supplies it and what the outage has done to world supply.HeliumHeliumShortageQatarLNGIndustrialGasesHormuzNaturalGasMiddleEastSemiconductorshttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/global-urea-shortage-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/global-urea-shortage-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The 2026 Iran war cut off much of the Gulf's urea exports and sent prices to multi-year highs in the spring, before Chinese supply and demand destruction pulled them back. We look at who exports urea, how the main benchmarks moved, which importing countries were most exposed and how governments responded.UreaFertiliserFertiliserPricesFoodSecurityIndiaBrazilMiddleEastChinaAmmoniahttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/ttt-tank-to-tank-transfer-oil-scam.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/ttt-tank-to-tank-transfer-oil-scam.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Offers of EN590 diesel or jet fuel "TTT" or "TTV" in Rotterdam follow a fixed script: rent a tank, buy a storage receipt, pay for a dip test, then wait for an "injection" that never comes. We explain how a genuine in-tank title transfer works, how the broker-chain procedure extracts fees, what terminals, prosecutors and inspectors have found, and how to check an offer.OilScamsTTTTankFarmEN590JetFuelStorageSpoofingFraudPreventionOilTradinghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-storage-tank-farm-scams-storage-spoofing.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-storage-tank-farm-scams-storage-spoofing.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Storage spoofing, the sale of oil and tank capacity that do not exist at real terminals, has grown from crude emails into cloned terminal websites, forged storage documents and even staged tank samplings. This guide explains how tank farm scams use the names of terminals in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Houston and Fujairah, what ports, terminal operators and courts say, and how to check a storage claim before any money moves.OilScamsStorageSpoofingTankFarmOilStorageFraudPreventionOilTradingDueDiligenceRotterdamhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/new-helium-supply-projects-russia-us-tanzania.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/new-helium-supply-projects-russia-us-tanzania.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000With Qatari output disrupted since March, buyers are looking for new sources of helium. Russia's Amur plant has the largest capacity, but its exports now need government approval. US producers, Algeria and smaller projects in Canada, Tanzania and South Africa are adding supply, mostly in small steps.HeliumHeliumShortageRussiaExplorationIndustrialGasesNaturalGasAfricaCanadaUnitedStatesSanctionshttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-kharg-island-export-terminals-refineries.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-kharg-island-export-terminals-refineries.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Before the 2026 war, Kharg Island handled about 90% of Iran's crude exports, supported by storage at Lavan, Siri and the newer Jask terminal beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also has about 2.4 million b/d of refining capacity, from Abadan to the Persian Gulf Star condensate refinery. We explain how this infrastructure works and how the events of 2026 have changed flows.IranOilIranKhargIslandRefiningOilExportsGasolineShippingMiddleEastHormuzhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-petrochemicals-methanol-urea-lpg.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-petrochemicals-methanol-urea-lpg.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran is a major supplier of methanol, urea and LPG to world markets, using gas from the South Pars field as feedstock. China takes most of its methanol and LPG, while its urea reaches markets including Türkiye and Brazil. We look at the industry's scale, the markets it serves and how the 2026 conflict affected methanol and urea supply and prices worldwide.IranGasIranPetrochemicalsMethanolUreaLPGFertiliserAmmoniaChinaMiddleEasthttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-production-exports-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-production-exports-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran holds the world's third-largest proved oil reserves and exported about 1.7 million barrels a day of crude in 2025, before the regional conflict that began in February 2026. Since the US naval blockade of Iranian ports started in April, exports have fallen sharply, with Kpler recording no crude exports in September, and output has dropped well below the country's 3.8 million b/d capacity. We review Iran's oil production, exports, product trade and the outlook for a recovery.IranOilIranOilExportsCrudeOilOPECOilPricesMiddleEastEnergySecurityHormuzhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-fields-reserves-upstream.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-fields-reserves-upstream.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran holds some of the world's largest oil reserves, concentrated in giant onshore fields in the south-west such as Ahvaz, Marun and Gachsaran. We look at how large those reserves are, how the main fields are being developed and what the 2026 export disruption means for production capacity and the outlook.IranOilIranUpstreamOilReservesCrudeOilOPECKhuzestanMiddleEastOPECPlushttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-natural-gas-south-pars-exports.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-natural-gas-south-pars-exports.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran holds the world's second-largest proved natural gas reserves, and South Pars, the offshore field it shares with Qatar, supplies most of its output. More than 90% of that gas is used at home, leaving modest pipeline volumes for Türkiye and Iraq and no LNG exports. We review reserves, demand, export contracts and how the 2026 conflict affected regional gas flows.IranGasIranNaturalGasSouthParsTurkiyeIraqLNGQatarMiddleEastEnergySecurityhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-opec-role-quotas-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-opec-role-quotas-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran helped found OPEC in Baghdad in 1960 and holds some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves. It was exempted from the OPEC+ cuts agreed in December 2018 because of sanctions and remains outside the group's targets in 2026. With output at 1.957 mb/d in September and its 2027 reference level due to be based on August–October 2026 production, we explain the exemption, Iran's record at OPEC meetings and what its barrels mean for the market.IranOilIranOPECOPECPlusSpareCapacityOilPricesCrudeOilMiddleEasthttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-strait-of-hormuz-energy-trade.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-strait-of-hormuz-energy-trade.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, carried oil equal to about a fifth of world consumption and over a fifth of global LNG trade before the 2026 war. Iran loads about 94% of its own crude exports at Kharg Island inside the Gulf, while its Jask terminal outside the strait has seen little use. We look at the volumes, who depends on them, how flows, freight and insurance have changed in 2026, and the limits of the bypass routes.IranOilIranHormuzShippingLNGEnergySecurityTankersMiddleEastKhargIslandLPGhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-to-verify-oil-storage-terminal-due-diligence.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-to-verify-oil-storage-terminal-due-diligence.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Many physical oil offers rest on one claim: the product is already in a named tank farm, ready to transfer. This guide sets out five due-diligence steps for buyers, banks and brokers, from confirming who runs the terminal to securing payment, and explains what a genuine terminal will and will not confirm.OilScamsDueDiligenceOilStorageTankFarmKYCFraudPreventionStorageSpoofingOilTradinghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-war-fertiliser-trade-urea-ammonia.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-war-fertiliser-trade-urea-ammonia.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The Gulf is one of the world's main sources of nitrogen fertiliser, and most of its urea exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The 2026 Iran war cut those exports sharply, raised insurance and freight costs and pushed producers onto slower overland and Red Sea routes. The squeeze has also spread to sulphur and phosphates.UreaFertiliserAmmoniaHormuzShippingFoodSecurityMiddleEastQatarSaudiArabiaOmanhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-sanctions-market-effects.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-oil-sanctions-market-effects.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran's oil exports have tracked the sanctions applied to them since 2012. They fell after the EU embargo, recovered under the 2015 nuclear agreement and fell again when US sanctions returned in 2018. By 2025 China was taking most Iranian barrels, and in 2026 a US naval blockade cut loadings to their lowest level since 2020. We trace the volumes, the buyers and the effects on prices, freight and other suppliers.IranOilIranSanctionsOilPricesOilExportsShippingOPECMiddleEastChinahttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-global-oil-prices-impact.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/iran-global-oil-prices-impact.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Iran holds some of the world's largest oil reserves and shipped 2.41 million barrels a day of crude and products through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, most of it to China. Past episodes in 2012, 2018 and 2026 show that the price effect of changes in Iranian exports depends on spare capacity, buyers' alternatives, freight and risk premiums. We review the evidence and what published scenarios imply for Brent and Dubai in 2027.IranOilIranOilPricesBrentPriceForecastDubaiOmanOPECPlusMiddleEastHormuzhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-history-outlook-2027.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-shortage-history-outlook-2027.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The 2026 shutdown of Qatar's Ras Laffan complex has taken about a third of world helium supply offline, in what industry analysts call Helium Shortage 5.0. Earlier shortages were caused by plant outages, problems on the US federal helium system, the 2017 blockade of Qatar and setbacks at Russia's Amur plant. We look at how each one ended and what published analysis implies for 2027.HeliumHeliumShortageIndustrialGasesQatarLNGNaturalGasHormuzSupplyChainMarketOutlookhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-prices-2026-market.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/helium-prices-2026-market.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Helium has no transparent spot market, so the 2026 shortage has shown up in spot deals, supplier surcharges, allocation letters and new long-term contracts rather than in a single benchmark. Prices had been easing before the Gulf crisis. We explain how helium is sold, what published 2026 prices show, why containers matter as much as molecules and what buyers are doing.HeliumHeliumShortageHeliumPricesIndustrialGasesCommoditiesQatarSupplyChainLNGhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-oil-demand-peak-evs-petrochemicals.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-oil-demand-peak-evs-petrochemicals.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000China's demand for refined fuels is set to fall for a third straight year in 2026, as electric cars, electric and LNG trucks and the price shock from the Gulf war cut gasoline and diesel use. Petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel are the remaining sources of growth, while Beijing caps refining capacity and manages product exports through quotas. We review what Sinopec, CNPC, the IEA and others expect and what it means for global oil demand in 2026–2027.ChinaEnergyChinaChinaOilOilDemandElectricVehiclesPetrochemicalsRefiningTeapotsDieselNaphthahttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/urea-shortage-food-prices-crop-yields.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/urea-shortage-food-prices-crop-yields.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The 2026 Iran war disrupted much of the Gulf's urea exports and made fertiliser unaffordable for many farmers at a time when crop prices were low. FAO, the World Bank, IFPRI and WFP all warned that a cost shock could become a yield shock. We look at how nitrogen drives harvests, what the 2026 data show and which regions are most exposed.UreaFertiliserFoodSecurityFoodPricesAgricultureWheatFertiliserPricesMiddleEastHormuzhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/fake-dip-test-tank-storage-receipt-verification.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/fake-dip-test-tank-storage-receipt-verification.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000A fee to "authorise" a dip test, a tank storage receipt sent by a seller or an inspection report forwarded as a PDF proves nothing about oil in a tank. This guide explains how genuine gauging, sampling and storage paperwork work, how forgeries are used to extract money, and how to check a document with the inspector or terminal that supposedly issued it.OilScamsDocumentFraudDipTestOilStorageInspectionFraudPreventionDueDiligenceOilTradinghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/fake-inspection-certificates-bills-of-lading-oil.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/fake-inspection-certificates-bills-of-lading-oil.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Forged bills of lading, inspection reports and certificates of origin lie behind some of the largest losses in commodity trade finance, including the 2020 collapse of Singapore's Hin Leong. This guide explains how document fraud in oil trading works, what courts and investigators found in real cases, and how buyers and banks can verify a bill of lading or an inspection certificate before they pay.OilScamsDocumentFraudBillOfLadingInspectionTradeFinanceFraudPreventionKYCOilTradinghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-us-lng-dependence.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-us-lng-dependence.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The United States supplied 58% of the EU's LNG imports in 2025 and is on course to provide about two-thirds of Europe's LNG in 2026, as Qatari supply falters and Russian volumes face an EU ban. We look at how US cargoes are contracted and priced, the new capacity coming online, the EU–US energy pledge and the risks of relying so heavily on one supplier.EuropeGasLNGUnitedStatesNaturalGasHenryHubTTFEnergySecurityEuropeQatarhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-gas-storage-demand-cuts-coal-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-gas-storage-demand-cuts-coal-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000With LNG scarce and storage low, the EU is again using the tools it built in 2022: storage targets, voluntary demand cuts, fuel switching and joint purchasing. This time the Commission is asking for less storage, not more, coal has little spare capacity and industry is already cutting output. We look at what the toolbox contains and how much it can still deliver.EuropeGasLNGGasStorageNaturalGasEUGasCoalEnergySecurityEuropeFertiliserhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-without-gulf-lng-winter-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/europe-without-gulf-lng-winter-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Qatar supplied about a tenth of the EU's LNG at the end of 2025; by the second quarter of 2026 its share had fallen almost to zero. Europe now enters winter with storage at its lowest for the season in more than a decade and TTF at a four-year high. We look at how the gap is being filled and what ENTSOG, ACER, the Commission and the IEA say about winter adequacy.EuropeGasLNGNaturalGasTTFGasStorageQatarEnergySecurityEuropeNorwayhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-renewables-nuclear-buildout-oil-gas.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-renewables-nuclear-buildout-oil-gas.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000China added a record 311 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind capacity in 2025 and has 38 nuclear reactors under construction. In 2026 high oil prices sped up the electrification of transport, while new coal plants also kept coming online. We look at the data and at what the build-out implies for China's oil and LNG imports.ChinaEnergyChinaRenewablesNuclearPowerEnergyTransitionNaturalGasOilDemandInvestmentLNGCoalhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-global-energy-investment-belt-and-road.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-global-energy-investment-belt-and-road.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000China's energy engagement in Belt and Road countries hit a record in 2025, led by oil and gas, then shifted sharply towards green power in the first half of 2026. Chinese companies also hold overseas upstream stakes, long-term LNG contracts with Gulf suppliers and growing pipeline links to Russia and Central Asia. We review what has been reported and how the 2026 Gulf crisis has changed the picture.ChinaEnergyChinaBeltAndRoadLNGUpstreamInvestmentPipelinesNaturalGasRussiaEnergySecurityhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-energy-security-oil-stockpiles-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/china-energy-security-oil-stockpiles-2026.htmlTue, 27 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000China cushioned the 2026 Gulf disruption by cutting crude imports and drawing on commercial stocks, while its strategic reserves appear to have been left largely untouched. Russia and Brazil have gained market share as Saudi volumes fell, and pipeline supply from Russia and Kazakhstan has provided a steady base. We look at import volumes, stockpile estimates, quotas and what Chinese restocking could mean for global balances.ChinaEnergyChinaChinaOilOilStocksEnergySecurityCrudeOilOilImportsRussiaHormuzAsiahttps://www.alupetra.com/news/brief-2026-10-26.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/news/brief-2026-10-26.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000Ten developments shaping oil, gas and fertiliser markets today: Gulf supply risk, a firmer Saudi output recovery, Europe's gas squeeze, India's crude sourcing and record tanker freight.AsiaCrudeOilEIAEnergySecurityEuropeFreightHormuzIEAIndiaInventoriesLNGMiddleEastNaturalGasOilPricesPipelinesRedSeaRefiningSaudiArabiaShippingStorageTTFTankersUnitedStatesUpstreamhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/turkiye-energy-corridor-ceyhan-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/turkiye-energy-corridor-ceyhan-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass under attack, pipelines that end on Türkiye's Mediterranean coast carry more weight. A one-year Iraq–Türkiye pipeline deal, steady Caspian flows through Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan and fast-growing LNG capacity define Türkiye's role as an energy corridor. We review what is flowing, what is planned and what remains uncertain.TurkiyeEnergySecurityHormuzPipelinesCeyhanLNGIraqhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-market-2026-opec-brent.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-market-2026-opec-brent.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The Gulf war that began on 28 February turned a market that had been in surplus in 2025 into what the IEA calls the largest supply disruption in history, and both the IEA and EIA now project lower demand and a supply deficit this year. OPEC+ has restored its quotas on paper, but Gulf output remains constrained, while non-OPEC+ supply from the Americas continues to grow. We review the latest IEA, EIA and OPEC numbers and how Brent has moved through the year.BrentOPECPlusOilMarketIEAEIANonOPECHormuzhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/strategic-oil-reserves-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/strategic-oil-reserves-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The 2026 Gulf war triggered the largest coordinated emergency oil release in the IEA's history and pushed the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level since 1982. China has drawn heavily on commercial stocks while reportedly holding its strategic barrels back. We examine what remains in the world's buffers and what thinner inventories mean for price risk.SPREnergySecurityIEAOilStocksChinaDieselBrenthttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/russian-oil-exports-sanctions-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/russian-oil-exports-sanctions-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Russian oil export revenue has swung with the Gulf war, from $19–21 billion a month in April and May to under $14 billion in July and back to $17.7 billion in September. The EU has frozen its price cap at $44.10, while US policy has moved between waivers, a new sanctions law and temporary relief on diesel. We set out the volumes, the buyers, the enforcement picture and what it means for compliance.RussiaSanctionsShippingOilTradingIndiaShadowFleetPriceCaphttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-trading-scams-red-flags.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/oil-trading-scams-red-flags.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Fake crude "allocations", diesel and jet fuel offers parked in tanks that do not exist, and fees for "dip tests" are the stock-in-trade of advance-fee fraud in petroleum. Drawing on warnings from NNPC, Aramco, ADNOC, terminal operators and the Port of Rotterdam's anti-fraud taskforce, this guide explains how the scams work and how buyers can protect themselves.OilTradingDieselFraudPreventionStorageSpoofingDueDiligenceKYCJetFuelhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/opec-plus-spare-capacity-2027.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/opec-plus-spare-capacity-2027.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000OPEC+ held November output targets steady at its 4 October meeting, but Gulf members are still pumping well below their quotas because of the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Large volumes of capacity sit idle, yet the IEA counts very little of it as usable spare capacity. We set out how quotas compare with actual output and what the meetings on 1 and 29 November must decide for 2027.OPECPlusHormuzOilPricesSpareCapacitySaudiArabiaOilTradingUpstreamhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/letters-of-credit-oil-trading.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/letters-of-credit-oil-trading.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Oil sellers' standard terms let them demand a letter of credit or a standby before a cargo is released. This guide explains how a documentary letter of credit works under UCP 600, which documents an oil cargo needs, how standby letters of credit and SWIFT messages fit in, and the checks that separate a real bank instrument from a screenshot.OilTradingShippingTradeFinanceLettersOfCreditUCP600SWIFTFraudhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/lpg-market-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/lpg-market-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut Middle East LPG shipments to less than half their pre-war level, lifting the Saudi contract price and Asian delivered prices. Record US propane exports have filled part of the gap, but long voyages, Panama Canal limits and scarce ships have pushed freight to record levels. We review supply, prices, freight and the outlook for winter.LPGHormuzShippingIndiaPropaneSaudiCPEnergySecurityhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/lng-gas-prices-urea-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/lng-gas-prices-urea-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +00002026 was expected to be the year a wave of new LNG capacity loosened global gas markets. Instead, the loss of most Qatari and Emirati supply has cancelled out new North American volumes, pushed European gas to its highest since 2022 and disrupted the Gulf's urea exports. China's export quotas and EU trade policy are now shaping how far fertiliser prices pass on the gas shock.LNGNaturalGasTTFUreaFertiliserQatarCBAMhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/india-crude-imports-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/india-crude-imports-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000India has rebuilt its crude supply after the Strait of Hormuz closure, leaning first on Russian barrels and now on discounted Gulf grades. Russia's share of Indian imports fell from 46.6% in August to 33.5% in September as premiums and freight rose, while state refiners cut November Russian purchases. We look at volumes, prices, freight, refinery exposure and what the shift means for Indian Ocean crude flows.IndiaRussiaRefiningShippingOilTradingCrudeOilMiddleEasthttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/incoterms-oil-cargoes-fob-cif-des.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/incoterms-oil-cargoes-fob-cif-des.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Oil and gas cargoes are traded on FOB, CFR, CIF or delivered terms, but the Incoterm alone rarely settles who carries risk, title and cost. This guide explains the Incoterms® 2020 rules used for bulk liquid cargoes, how oil companies' general terms build on them, and how war-risk insurance and record freight rates are shaping the choice in 2026.OilTradingShippingLNGHormuzIncotermsMarineInsuranceDemurragehttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-to-verify-crude-oil-seller-kyc.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-to-verify-crude-oil-seller-kyc.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Before a buyer signs anything, a crude oil seller should be checked on six fronts: the company, its owners, sanctions exposure, title to the oil, the vessel and the bank. This guide shows how to run each check with free official tools, from the UK Sanctions List to Equasis, and ends with a step-by-step KYC checklist.KYCSanctionsOilTradingDueDiligenceShippingCrudeOilTradeCompliancehttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-crude-oil-is-priced-physical-contracts.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/how-crude-oil-is-priced-physical-contracts.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Physical crude is rarely sold at a fixed price. Contracts use a formula built on a benchmark averaged over an agreed pricing period, plus or minus a differential, with adjustments for quality and delivery terms. This guide explains each element, how official selling prices (OSPs) work and how traders hedge, and walks through a hypothetical cargo.OilTradingOilPricesBrentOSPCrudeOilShippingHedginghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/hormuz-red-sea-bosphorus-chokepoints.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/hormuz-red-sea-bosphorus-chokepoints.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000In 2026 the three chokepoints that matter most for Gulf and Black Sea energy flows have all become active risk zones. Hormuz traffic has partly recovered under naval escort but remains under attack, the Red Sea route that Saudi Arabia relies on to bypass Hormuz now faces a Houthi blockade, and drone strikes in the Black Sea have reached the approaches to the Bosphorus. We review current traffic, the security situation and the effect on tanker freight and insurance.HormuzRedSeaBabElMandebBosphorusTankerFreightMarineInsuranceShippinghttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/energy-security-investment-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/energy-security-investment-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000The 2026 Gulf war has put energy security back at the centre of investment decisions. The IEA's World Energy Investment 2026 report expects global energy spending to reach USD 3.4 trillion this year, while producers, importers and governments add bypass routes, overseas storage and new LNG supply. We review what has been announced and what remains uncertain.EnergySecurityUpstreamLNGHormuzInvestmentPipelinesIEAhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/diesel-jet-fuel-squeeze-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/diesel-jet-fuel-squeeze-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Diesel has been the tightest part of the oil barrel in 2026, with record crack spreads, all-time-high wholesale prices and US distillate stocks at their lowest for the time of year since 1982. Europe's reliance on imports has left it exposed, while US refiners have run at their hardest summer rates since 1998. We review the numbers, the policy response and what to watch this winter.DieselRefiningOilPricesEnergySecurityJetFuelEuropeIEAhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/dated-brent-backwardation-physical-premiums-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/dated-brent-backwardation-physical-premiums-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Physical North Sea crude has traded far above Brent futures for much of 2026, at times by more than $25 a barrel. We explain how Dated Brent is assessed, why steep backwardation and record freight have opened the gap, and why some Middle East grades are now moving the other way. We end with a checklist for buyers pricing cargoes.BrentOilPricesOilTradingShippingHormuzDatedBrentBackwardationhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/brent-wti-dubai-benchmarks-explained.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/brent-wti-dubai-benchmarks-explained.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Brent, WTI and Dubai/Oman are the reference prices behind most physical crude deals, but each one is built differently. This guide explains how Dated Brent, ICE Brent futures, NYMEX WTI and the Dubai, Oman and Murban markets work, why their prices differ and how the 2026 Hormuz disruption stretched the spreads between them.BrentOilPricesOilTradingWTIDubaiOmanHormuzCrudeBenchmarkshttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/brent-price-forecast-2027.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/brent-price-forecast-2027.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Brent is trading above $110 a barrel, but almost every published forecast expects it to fall sharply in 2027 as Gulf supply recovers and the market swings into surplus. The views differ on how fast that happens, from Citi's $65 to the IMF's $87 futures-based assumption. We compare the latest forecasts, their dates and assumptions, and the scenarios that could move prices up or down.BrentOilPricesOilTradingHormuzOPECPlusPriceForecastEnergySecurityhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/americas-oil-supply-growth-2026.htmlhttps://www.alupetra.com/insights/americas-oil-supply-growth-2026.htmlMon, 26 Oct 2026 05:00:00 +0000Oil from the Americas is the main source of supply growth outside the Gulf in 2026. The EIA now expects US crude output to average a record 13.9 million b/d this year, Brazil and Argentina have set production records, Guyana is preparing its fifth FPSO and Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline is running close to capacity. We review the numbers and ask how much of the lost Gulf supply these barrels can replace.UpstreamUSShaleGuyanaBrazilVacaMuertaCanadaHormuz