Iran War 2026 Timeline — How Each Phase Moved Oil and Gas Prices

When did the Iran war start and what happened to oil?

Military action began on 28 February 2026. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) describes a "de facto closure" of the Strait of Hormuz that followed ^[1]. Most ships stopped crossing because of the risk of Iranian attacks ^[1]. Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE then shut in output ^[1].

Brent had already risen from $61 to $72 a barrel in January and February as the risk of conflict grew ^[1]. It closed at $72.48 on the day before the war started, according to a Reuters column published by Hydrocarbon Processing ^[2]. The EIA says the front-month futures price passed $100 on 12 March and ended the first quarter at $118 ^[1]. It calls this the largest quarterly rise, adjusted for inflation, in data going back to 1988 ^[1].

How did March unfold for gas, LNG and emergency stocks?

Gas reacted at once. Dutch TTF futures, Europe's benchmark, hit €50 per megawatt hour (MWh) on 5 March, up 60% since the strikes began, Euronews reported ^[4]. Before the conflict TTF traded at about €30–31 ^[14].

The main reason was Qatar. On 2 March Iranian drones targeted a QatarEnergy facility at Ras Laffan, Al Jazeera reported ^[3]. The company suspended production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other products ^[3]. QatarEnergy normally exports about 81 million tonnes of LNG a year ^[3]. On 18–19 March, missile strikes damaged LNG Trains 4 and 6, with combined capacity of 12.8 million tonnes a year ^[6]. QatarEnergy said that was about 17% of its exports and that repairs could take three to five years ^[6].

On 11 March the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks ^[5]. It was the largest collective release in the agency's history. The previous record, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, was 182.7 million barrels ^[5]. IEA members then held more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency stocks ^[5].

What changed with the April ceasefire?

Late on 7 April, President Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in attacks ^[7]. Iran said it had agreed to safe passage through the strait ^[7]. Brent fell by as much as 16%. Early on 8 April it was trading near $94.71, down from a high of $111 the day before, IOL reported, citing AFP ^[7].

The relief did not last. Brent futures reached a four-year high of $126.41 on 30 April ^[2]. In early May, hopes of a peace deal pushed TTF down by more than 10% to about €42, Czech news site oEnergetice reported ^[8]. An analyst at broker XTB cautioned that the war had looked close to ending several times, "only for events to take another turn" ^[8]. The EIA estimates that Middle East crude production shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels a day (mb/d) in May ^[13].

What did the June memorandum do to prices?

The EIA dates a US–Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) to 17 June ^[10]. Brent fell below $80 on 16 June for the first time in more than three months, World Oil reported, citing Bloomberg ^[9]. The deal had raised expectations of a revival in Gulf supply ^[9]. Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $10 to $80 at the time ^[9].

Flows through Hormuz increased in June, the EIA says ^[10]. Brent futures began the third quarter at $72 on 1 July, the lowest since 26 February ^[10].

Why did prices rise again from July?

The EIA says military strikes resumed on 7 July ^[10]. Brent futures passed $100 on 23 July and then traded between $79 and $98 until 8 September ^[10]. The agency links daily swings to statements by US, Iranian and regional leaders ^[10]. Changes in Hormuz flows and attacks on Russian export infrastructure also played a part ^[10].

Gas eased briefly in late July. Strikes between the United States and Iran paused over the weekend of 25–26 July ^[11]. On 28 July TTF was at €56.94, Baird Maritime reported, citing Reuters ^[11]. That was still some 75% above its pre-war level ^[11].

What happened in September?

On 10 September drones struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu ^[12]. The kingdom suspended operations ^[12]. Saudi authorities said the drones were launched from Maysan province in south-eastern Iraq ^[12].

The EIA says the outage pushed the daily Brent spot price as high as $131 on 15 September ^[13]. Buyers were scrambling for prompt barrels ^[13]. Brent spot averaged $114 in September, $23 above August ^[13]. Futures peaked lower, at $109 on the same day ^[10]. The pipeline partly resumed flows on 22 September, and prices eased in the last week of the month ^[13].

Gas followed a similar path. TTF briefly rose above €80 earlier in September, Euronews reported, and stood at about €72–74 by 28 September ^[14].

What has happened in October?

October brought renewed attacks on shipping and continued diplomacy. On 15 October the IEA Governing Board agreed to speed up the remaining releases from its March action. About 330 million barrels had been released, and around 100 million more, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel, were brought forward ^[16]. The board said total releases would exceed the 400 million barrels first pledged ^[16].

Gas rose further. The November TTF contract settled at €87.2 on 13 October, up from €72.5 on 30 September, according to ENGIE EnergyScan ^[15]. The National reported TTF above €95 in the week to 29 October, close to its highest since December 2022 ^[20]. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on its own LNG shipments to the end of December ^[20].

Brent settled at $116.72 on 23 October, its highest since 29 April, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported ^[17]. On 29 October the December contract settled at $114.88 ^[18]. Rigzone reported that President Trump had signalled he may resume the military campaign after the 3 November midterm elections ^[18]. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance ^[18].

On 30 October Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said tankers had caught fire on what it called unsafe routes in the strait ^[19]. US Central Command's commander said the main shipping lanes had been cleared of mines ^[19]. The same day, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran to continue efforts to broker an agreement ^[19].

What to watch

• Talks. Iran's reply to the latest proposal carried by Qatari mediators ^[19].
• US politics. Reported signals of possible renewed strikes after the 3 November midterms ^[18].
• Saudi export routes. Flows on the East-West pipeline, a single point of failure in September ^[12,13].
• Qatari LNG. Whether force majeure is lifted at the end of December, and the pace of repairs at Ras Laffan ^[6,20].
• Stocks. How fast the remaining IEA releases reach the market ^[16].

Alupetra tracks Brent, WTI and European gas prices daily; this timeline will be updated as events unfold.