Free tool
Oil price range calculator — volatility-based range for the weeks ahead
A transparent, volatility-based range for the weeks ahead: from the last year of daily moves, the tool gives the band inside which the price has stayed about two thirds (1σ) and 95% (2σ) of the time. For Brent at $123.10 on 27 October 2026, realised volatility of 63.9% a year implies a one-week 1σ range of $112.51 to $134.69. It is statistics about the past, not a forecast.
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Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns over the last 252 trading days, annualised with √252. You can type your own figure, for example an implied volatility from options.
These tools are for information and analysis. They use public data (EIA, World Bank, ECB) and transparent formulas, and they are not investment advice or an offer to trade. Check figures against the original source before relying on them.
Method
How it is calculated
Formulas
σ_daily = stdev(ln(Pₜ / Pₜ₋₁))Standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns over the last 252 trading days.σ_T = σ_daily × √TVolatility scales with the square root of the number of trading days in the horizon (5 for a week, 21 for a month).range = P₀ × e^(±k·σ_T)k = 1 for the 1σ band (about 68% of outcomes historically), k = 2 for the 2σ band (about 95%). The bands are symmetric in logarithms, so the upside in dollars is slightly larger than the downside.LimitsReal markets have fatter tails than this normal-distribution shortcut: in 2020 and 2022 Brent moved outside the 2σ band several times. The tool describes the past dispersion; it does not know about next week’s OPEC+ meeting.
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FAQ
Questions about this tool
Is this an oil price forecast?
No. It shows how far the price has typically moved over a similar horizon in the past year. Our Friday outlook article discusses the actual drivers for the week ahead; this tool gives the statistical backdrop to it.
What volatility should I use?
The default is realised volatility from EIA daily spot data. Traders often use implied volatility from options on Brent or WTI futures, which reflects what the market expects; you can type that figure directly.
Why does the range widen with time?
Uncertainty grows with the square root of time: a one-month range is about twice as wide as a one-week range, not four times.
Need the physical cargo, not just the number?
We trade crude, products, LNG, LPG, urea and base oils against written specifications. Offers follow KYC.