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Expert voices
What energy leaders are saying
Remarks by the heads of energy agencies, producers and traders on the 2026 supply shock — summarised by us, quoted exactly, and linked to the original reports.
Each quote has been checked word for word against the source cited and is reproduced in its original language. Summaries are our own paraphrase. Inclusion does not imply any relationship between these people or organisations and Alupetra.
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Fatih Birol
Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Financial Times Energy Transition conference, London ·
No “normalisation” of oil markets in 2027
Birol said he sees little chance of oil market conditions returning to normal in 2027, given the Gulf supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war. He noted that IEA members had made up to 400 million barrels of emergency stocks available, about 20% of their holdings, and said further releases could follow if needed.
“I personally don't see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalisation”
Nasser described the disruption to trade through the Strait of Hormuz, together with attacks on regional energy infrastructure, as the most serious supply shock of his career. He said refilling inventories while also meeting demand could take up to two years, and called for collective international efforts to protect energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
“Commercial onshore inventories are now well below six billion barrels, and they are the last available buffer.”
Wirth said the commercial and government stocks that softened this year’s supply shock have been drawn down, leaving the system more exposed to further disruption. He described stock releases as a way to buy time rather than a fix, and argued that fuel export bans take supply off the global market.
“Those are all buffers in the system that have bought us time, but they've been drained”
Hardy said Middle East exports of about 12 million b/d of crude and 2 million b/d of refined products were keeping the market balanced going into winter, now that Western inventories have largely been drawn down. He described the year’s disruption as moving from a crude crisis to a products crisis and then a shipping crisis, and expects refined products to stay tight through winter.
“We've had pretty parabolic pricing on shipping, which is creating a lot of stress for everybody”
Energy Minister of Qatar; President & CEO, QatarEnergy
Qatar Economic Forum, New York ·
North Field East start-up moves to 2027
Al-Kaabi said the first production train of the North Field East LNG expansion should start in the first half of 2027, later than the earlier 2026 target, and warned that a prolonged Hormuz disruption could delay later trains. He said Qatar is building its position as an LNG trader, helped by output from the Golden Pass plant in the United States.
“We will be, in the very near future, the largest LNG trader in the world by far”
Pouyanné said crude is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, as producers sell at steep discounts to Brent that more than cover the cost of the voyage. The same economics do not work for product tankers, he said, which has left a shortage of oil products and split the market into weak crude and strong products.
“That's why you have a bearish crude oil market and a very bullish products market, which is very strange”
Al Ghais said OPEC still expects robust oil demand growth this year and is not changing its estimates despite the Middle East conflict and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. He argued that investment decisions in the sector should not be swayed by one-off events.
“We still see robust demand growth at 1.2 million barrels a day for this year”
Holsether said about a third of traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so each day of disruption means lost fertiliser output, which matters because about half of global food production depends on fertiliser. He said Yara is running its plants at full capacity.
“The Strait of Hormuz is the most important shipping channel for the export of urea fertilizer in the world”
