China Fuel Price Adjustment, November 2026: Gasoline, Diesel and the Next Window

How much did China's fuel prices rise on 30 October 2026?

China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised the benchmark prices of gasoline and diesel from 24:00 on 29 October ^[1]. Gasoline rose 345 yuan per tonne and diesel 335 yuan ^[1]. Under the normal formula, the increases would have been 440 yuan and 420 yuan ^[1]. The intervention therefore trimmed 95 yuan from gasoline and 85 yuan from diesel ^[1].

The NDRC linked the move to the Middle East ^[3]. It said tensions had escalated since the 15 October window and pushed international crude prices up quickly ^[3]. Xinhua reported that Brent futures briefly reached about $117 a barrel, close to this year's high, and recently hovered around $115 ^[1]. On 29 October, December Brent settled at $114.88 and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $102 ^[16].

Bian Zheng, who heads the fossil energy price division at an NDRC price centre, described the decision as a balance ^[3]. It aims to ease the burden on consumers while keeping refined product supply safe and stable, he said ^[3]. The NDRC told the major oil companies to keep supply stable and to follow the price rules ^[1].

This was the 21st adjustment of 2026 and the 14th increase ^[2]. The year's record now stands at 14 rises, five cuts and two windows with no change ^[2]. Time Weekly counts this as the fifth temporary intervention of the year ^[7].

What do drivers in China pay at the pump now?

Per-litre conversions vary slightly by outlet. Yicai put the rise at 0.26 yuan a litre for 92-octane gasoline, 0.28 yuan for 95-octane and 0.28 yuan for 0# diesel ^[2]. On that basis, filling a 50-litre tank with 92-octane costs about 13 yuan more ^[2]. Huanghe News estimated 0.28 yuan for 92-octane and 14–15 yuan more per tank ^[4].

Before the rise, The Paper listed national reference averages ^[5]. These were 8.59 yuan a litre for 92-octane, 9.17 yuan for 95-octane and 8.27 yuan for diesel ^[5]. After it, Huanghe News reported averages of 8.87, 9.47 and 8.56 yuan ^[4]. It said diesel was within 1–3 fen of its April high ^[4].

Local prices differ by province, and in some provinces by city ^[6]. In Beijing, 92-octane cost 8.89 yuan and 95-octane 9.46 yuan after the change ^[6]. Guiyang in Guizhou reached 9.02 yuan for 92-octane ^[6]. Some stations in Yunnan and Guizhou have moved into the 9-yuan range, and some 95-octane prices in Guangdong and Guangxi exceed 9.6 yuan ^[4].

The cost adds up over the year. Using Guangdong's price of 6.79 yuan a litre on 20 January, a 50-litre tank now costs about 100 yuan more ^[7]. In 2025, by contrast, prices fell by about 0.72 yuan a litre over the year ^[7].

Fuel is also visible in inflation data. Gasoline prices were 16.6% higher in September than a year earlier, adding about 0.47 percentage points to the consumer price index (CPI) ^[14]. Headline CPI rose 0.9% year on year ^[15]. The statistics bureau's "energy for transport facilities" index was up 14.9% ^[15].

How does China's fuel price adjustment mechanism work?

China imports more than 70% of its crude, so pump prices follow world markets ^[8]. Under the NDRC's 2016 rules, maximum retail prices are reviewed every 10 working days ^[8]. The NDRC's Lü Zhichen describes three features ^[8]. Prices track a basket of international crudes, use the average of the previous 10 working days and allow government intervention in some cases ^[8].

The basket is not published. Platts reported, citing Beijing-based sources, that it includes Brent, WTI and Dubai Mercantile Exchange Oman, weighted by China's import mix ^[9]. Changes of less than 50 yuan a tonne are normally not applied ^[9]. According to Platts, increases are narrowed when the basket is above $80 a barrel and frozen above $130 ^[9].

Tian Lei of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research said a $130 basket corresponds to just over 10 yuan a litre for 92-octane ^[8]. Above that level, retail prices may stop rising or rise less, and fiscal and tax support may follow ^[8]. Article 7 of the rules also lets the authorities delay, suspend or narrow changes in special circumstances ^[8]. That clause has been used this year, even with Brent below $130 ^[1,8].

Why has Beijing capped fuel price increases five times in 2026?

The interventions began soon after the Gulf war started. On 23 March, the formula implied a gasoline rise of 2,205 yuan a tonne, but the NDRC allowed 1,160 ^[8]. Platts said this cut about 0.85 yuan a litre from the increase ^[9]. On 7 April, an implied 800-yuan rise became 420 ^[8].

The September window followed the same pattern. On 11 September, the formula implied 435 yuan for gasoline, but the NDRC approved 260 ^[10]. Xinhua estimated private drivers saved about 7 yuan a tank and truck drivers about 75 yuan against the formula ^[10]. Time Weekly estimates that the five interventions together cut gasoline and diesel increases by more than 2,000 yuan a tonne, about 50% ^[7].

Analysts describe two aims. Chen Shouhai of the China University of Petroleum said caps should limit the burden on consumers ^[3]. He added that refiners still need to pass on a moderate part of import costs to avoid disrupting production ^[3]. In 2022, the authorities paused increases for less than two months and gave refiners temporary subsidies ^[8].

How have China's fuel prices moved through 2026?

Prices have swung with the conflict. On 3 July, the NDRC cut gasoline by 950 yuan a tonne and diesel by 915 yuan ^[11]. It was the third cut in a row and the biggest in nearly six years ^[11]. Tian Lei linked it to easing tensions and a gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz shipping ^[11].

Rises resumed in the summer. On 28 August, gasoline rose 375 yuan and diesel 360 yuan ^[12]. Gasoline then rose 260 yuan on 11 September and 395 yuan on 25 September ^[10,13]. On 15 October, the NDRC left prices unchanged, citing volatile international oil prices ^[13].

Across the year, gasoline is up 2,720 yuan a tonne and diesel 2,625 yuan ^[7]. Huanghe News converts that to about 2.18–2.32 yuan a litre ^[4]. In early 2026, crude traded near $60 a barrel ^[7].

The year is also unusual against recent history. China recorded 10 rises and 12 cuts in 2023, nine of each in 2024 and seven rises against 12 cuts in 2025 ^[8].

Is China's diesel supply under pressure?

Diesel is the tighter product worldwide. Yao Daming of the Guangdong Petroleum Society said the international diesel market faces a supply crisis separate from crude ^[7]. Kpler data cited by Time Weekly show Chinese commercial diesel stocks nearly 20 million barrels below pre-war levels ^[7]. Gasoline stocks are about 9 million barrels lower ^[7].

Margins have narrowed. The gross margin on diesel fell from more than 1,000 yuan a tonne early in the year to about 300 yuan ^[7]. Yao expects retailers to offer smaller discounts and sell closer to the maximum price ^[7]. Some refiners may trim output defensively, Time Weekly reported ^[7].

A domestic shortage still looks unlikely to Time Weekly ^[7]. It says electric and LNG trucks and slower infrastructure building have pushed diesel use down ^[7]. We covered that shift in China's oil demand outlook. Crude imports in the first eight months fell 14.6% year on year to 321 million tonnes ^[7]. Our article on China's oil stockpiles looks at how stocks absorbed that drop.

What to watch: the 12 November window and beyond

The next adjustment falls at 24:00 on 12 November ^[2]. Early estimates point higher. On the first working day of the new cycle, one estimate showed gasoline up 100 yuan a tonne and diesel up 95 yuan ^[4]. Institutional estimates reported on 1 November gave the same figures, about 0.08 yuan a litre for 92-octane ^[17]. Another estimate put the crude change at 1.97% and the rise at about 90 yuan ^[19]. These are mid-cycle projections, not NDRC decisions ^[17,19].

• Crude prices. Li Yan of Longzhong Information sees a rise at the next window as more likely ^[2]. He cites US–Iran uncertainty and attacks on Saudi energy sites ^[2].
• Further caps. If crude climbs, the NDRC may trim the rise again, as it has done five times in 2026 ^[7].
• Diesel discounts. Watch whether stations cut diesel discounts as wholesale margins shrink ^[7].
• Remaining windows. After 12 November, the calendar lists windows on 26 November, 10 December and 24 December ^[18].
• Inflation. October CPI will show how much the latest rises feed through to household costs ^[14,15].

Alupetra follows crude, gasoline and diesel prices across Asian and European markets every day; our market pages track the benchmarks behind China's pricing windows.