Urea Prices November 2026: Benchmarks, India's Tender, China and the Outlook

Where do urea prices stand in November 2026?

Urea prices start November in a narrow but firm range. The spring spike is over, yet no major benchmark is near its pre-war low. How the shock began is covered in our analysis of the urea shortage. This article looks at the market now.

The Australian Fertilizer Corporation (AFC) publishes a weekly market note. It put Middle East urea at $430–440 a tonne FOB in the week to 23 October ^[1]. Egyptian producers sold at about $535 FOB, with Europe the likely destination ^[1]. Chinese granular urea was quoted at $440 FOB, while Chinese prilled urea had an indicative netback of $345–350 ^[1]. AFC called the overall market "stable to firm" ^[1].

Importing regions pay more. AFC put non-Chinese urea delivered to Brazil at about $490 a tonne on a cost and freight (CFR) basis ^[1]. Nobel Trading reported a Brazilian range of $476–488 CFR, up from $464–482 a week earlier ^[5]. In the United States, January barges at New Orleans (NOLA) were quoted above $480 CFR. Trade there was subdued outside the main buying season ^[1].

The cheapest supply is Chinese prilled urea, which mainly sells to India ^[3]. Granular urea carries a premium of more than $100 a tonne over prilled product, according to AFC ^[3].

Farm-gate prices tell a similar story. DTN's survey of US retailers put urea at $674 a short ton in the third week of October ^[6]. That was $1 lower on the month but 13% higher than a year earlier ^[6]. The series peaked at $865 in early May and fell to $655 by late August ^[6].

What happened in India's latest urea tender?

India's tenders set the tone for prilled urea, because few other markets can absorb Chinese prilled cargoes in comparable volumes ^[3]. Indian Potash Limited (IPL) closed its latest tender on 7 October, seeking 1.7 million tonnes ^[7]. The lowest offers were $352.10 a tonne CFR for the east coast and $356.25 for the west coast ^[3].

The offers were the lowest of the year. AFC said they were about $40 below the August tender and about $607 below the tender of 15 April ^[3]. In April, IPL had paid $935 for the west coast and $959 for the east coast ^[9]. A June tender run by National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) drew lowest offers of $444.90 and $449.30 ^[8]. In August, Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) received offers from $390.25 ^[8].

Low prices did not secure the volume India wanted. Nobel Trading reported that India bought only about 410,000 tonnes, and IPL has not published an award figure ^[5]. AFC summed up the result as "India called the price. China declined India's invitation" ^[2]. Earlier rounds had filled their targets: close to 1.8 million tonnes was booked in June and about 1.78 million tonnes in August ^[8,10].

A new tender is widely expected. Nobel Trading expects one between late October and mid-November, and estimates Indian stocks at 6.8–8.1 million tonnes ^[5]. AFC thinks it could approach 2 million tonnes ^[1]. It adds that a lowest price near $375 CFR would give Chinese producers netbacks of about $345–350 FOB ^[1]. Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas drive Indian urea demand through November and December ^[7].

How much urea is China exporting?

China remains the swing supplier. Beijing expanded its 2026 export allowance to roughly 5–5.5 million tonnes, Fertilizer Daily reported in September ^[11]. Shipments rose from about 7,000 tonnes in June to about 403,000 tonnes in July ^[11].

Policy has loosened in stages. China announced a fourth export tranche in early October, and the market expected about 1.5–2.0 million tonnes to become available ^[4]. AFC later said the tranche had no specified shipment expiry date, and that substantial volumes from the third tranche remained unsold ^[3].

Chinese sellers have still shown discipline. AFC reported that they had little interest in prices equivalent to $320–325 FOB, and sold prilled urea elsewhere at up to $340 ^[2]. China holds significant urea inventories and domestic demand is subdued, AFC says ^[1]. It also notes that Beijing's priority is domestic price stability, so a sharp rise in local prices could bring renewed intervention ^[3].

Are Gulf urea exports recovering?

Not through the Strait of Hormuz. Tracking data compiled by World Visualized show fertiliser shipments through the strait fell to zero in September and stayed there in October ^[12]. An S&P Global report estimated that about 29% of global urea trade normally passes through the waterway ^[12].

Some Gulf product still reaches buyers. AFC said limited Middle Eastern cargoes were reaching customers in Brazil and Thailand ^[1]. Qatari and Nigerian urea was offered in Brazil at $485–500 a tonne CFR, according to Nobel Trading ^[5]. Omani granular urea was quoted at about $450 FOB in early October ^[3].

Producers are paying for the disruption. SABIC Agri-Nutrients reported third-quarter net income of SAR 484 million, down 62.48% on a year earlier ^[13]. It cited lower sales volumes and higher shipping and distribution costs linked to supply-chain problems ^[13]. The United Nations has proposed a fertiliser corridor, but Fertilizer Daily reports it remains stalled pending a US–Iran agreement ^[12].

How are gas prices shaping European production?

Gas is the main cost in making ammonia, the feedstock for urea. The November contract on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) traded above €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on 28 October ^[14]. That is about $32.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), and roughly three times its pre-war level ^[14].

US producers pay a fraction of that. LSB Industries reported an average gas cost of $2.93/MMBtu in the third quarter ^[14]. The November Henry Hub contract settled at $3.058/MMBtu in mid-October, EBW Analytics said ^[15]. The US Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub to average $3.16 in 2027 ^[15].

High gas has cut European output. Yara reduced production by 150,000 tonnes of ammonia and 115,000 tonnes of finished products in the third quarter, mainly at Ferrara in Italy ^[14]. Nobel Trading estimated northwest European urea production costs at about $740 a tonne, up from $678, after TTF passed €90 on 20 October ^[5]. That is far above current import prices ^[1,5].

Europe has also bought less. Yara's market data show European Union nitrogen imports fell 30% in May–September, to 1.1 million tonnes ^[16]. AFC expects higher regional gas costs to bring European buyers back to the urea market ^[2]. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, framed it simply: "The key question is whether these higher prices will destroy demand" ^[14].

What does Northern Hemisphere spring demand look like?

Spring buying is the next big test. In the United States, retail urea costs $0.73 per pound of nitrogen, against $0.60 for anhydrous ammonia, according to DTN ^[6]. All eight fertilisers DTN tracks are now dearer than a year ago ^[6].

Farm economists are cautious. A farmdoc daily analysis from the University of Illinois suggested pricing part of 2027 nutrient needs in the autumn ^[20]. It also said a shift towards soybeans could reduce fertiliser costs for 2027 ^[20]. North Dakota State University forecasts an average urea price of $496 in 2027, Fertilizer Daily reported ^[19]. CoBank and NDSU expect nitrogen prices to stay above pre-war levels through at least 2028 ^[19].

Import flows show buyers waiting. Yara said US urea imports for the 2026/27 season are tracking well below prior years ^[16]. In Brazil, AFC says demand is held back by agricultural credit restrictions and seasonal conditions ^[1]. For an importing market's view, see our report on urea prices in Türkiye.

What comes next for urea prices?

Published outlooks point to a gradual decline from current levels, with clear upside risks. The World Bank's October outlook forecasts an average urea price of $510 a tonne in 2026 ^[17]. It expects $429 in 2027 and $368 in 2028 ^[17]. In April it had expected $675 for 2026 ^[17]. It also forecasts European gas at $17.5/MMBtu in 2027, against $19.0 in 2026 ^[17].

Near-term views are more mixed. In July, The Western Producer, drawing on Argus analysis, expected prices to ease in November–December as Nigerian and Russian supply reached export markets ^[18]. It then expected a partial rebound in the first quarter, when China pulls back from exports for its own season ^[18]. DTN, citing Dow Jones, says pressure on fertiliser markets is expected to persist through 2026, with only gradual improvement in 2027 ^[6].

A base case drawn from these views is a range-bound market. India's next tender would set the floor for prilled urea, near the level AFC describes ^[1]. European gas costs would support granular prices in the Atlantic basin ^[1,14]. The main upside risks are a longer Hormuz closure, smaller Chinese quotas and further European curtailments ^[12,3,14]. The main downside risks are a reopening of the strait and weaker demand ^[12,14].

What to watch

• India's next tender. Its size, timing and lowest price, and whether China supplies most of it ^[1,5].
• China's export policy. Shipments from the fourth tranche and any new limits to protect domestic prices ^[3].
• Hormuz. Any restart of fertiliser shipments or progress on the UN corridor ^[12].
• TTF gas. Whether prices above €100/MWh lead to more ammonia and urea curtailments ^[14,16].
• Spring buying. US imports, Brazilian credit conditions and European purchasing for the 2027 season ^[1,16].

Alupetra follows urea, ammonia and gas prices daily alongside its oil and fuel market coverage.