Fuel Prices in Africa, November 2026: Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Egypt

How do fuel prices compare across Africa's biggest markets?

Fuel prices in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Egypt are all higher than before the Middle East war began in February. But each country sets them differently. Nigeria's market is deregulated, so the Dangote refinery and depot owners lead pump prices. South Africa and Kenya use monthly formulas run by regulators. Egypt sets prices through a committee that meets each quarter.

Crude oil remains the common driver. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September and peaked above $126 in early October, according to Egypt Oil & Gas ^[18]. It traded at about $104 at the end of October ^[11].

To compare the four markets, we converted the latest petrol price in each country into US dollars. For Nigeria we used the official rate of N1,346.86 per dollar on 30 October ^[9]. For Egypt we used the bank selling rate of EGP 56.11 on 29 October ^[20]. For South Africa and Kenya we used the exchange rates in each regulator's latest calculation: R16.212 ^[10] and KES 129.91 ^[15]. The results are approximate.

On this basis, South African and Kenyan drivers pay roughly 70% to 80% more than Nigerians buying at NNPC in Lagos. Egyptian petrol remains the cheapest of the four, well under half a dollar a litre. Taxes explain much of the gap. Kenya's prices include value added tax (VAT) at a temporary 8% ^[14]. South Africa adds a fuel levy and other charges, part of which is being cut this month ^[13].

What is the petrol price in Nigeria now, and why did Dangote cut it?

The Dangote refinery cut its gantry price of premium motor spirit (PMS, or petrol) to N1,210 a litre from N1,265 ^[1]. That is a fall of N55, or 4.35% ^[1]. Legit.ng reported that the cut followed a decline in EBOB, the European gasoline benchmark the refinery uses as its price reference ^[1]. Industry sources also pointed to better supply ^[1].

Depot owners moved first. In Lagos, six depot quotes averaged N1,259.17 a litre on Friday 30 October, down N40.83 from the day before ^[1]. Diesel is also cheaper: Dangote's revised diesel gantry rate is N1,840 a litre ^[1].

The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) puts the import parity price of petrol at N1,253.80 a litre ^[2]. It recorded Dangote's gantry price at N1,185.13 as of 30 October ^[2]. The difference of N68.67 a litre favours locally refined petrol ^[2]. Note that the two Dangote figures come from different reports and do not match exactly.

The cut reverses part of a steep rise. Between late August and 12 September, the gantry price rose four times, from N1,165 to N1,350 ^[5]. That was an increase of N185, or 15.9% ^[5]. On 12 September, an MRS station in Alapere, Lagos, sold petrol at about N1,395 a litre ^[5].

Retail prices have not yet caught up with the latest cut. On 28 October, the state oil company NNPC sold petrol at N1,369 a litre in Lagos and N1,405 in Abuja ^[3]. A N66 discount for motorists using the NNPC Fuel App ended on 31 October ^[3]. Managers at NNPC and MRS stations said prices should fall this week ^[1]. Abubakar Maigandi leads the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN). He said members would cut prices once they received the cheaper Dangote petrol ^[1].

Government policy is also in play. On 8 October, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele spoke of a N1,350 ceiling on the ex-gantry or landing cost ^[4]. He said the government was still negotiating it ^[4]. "This is neither a subsidy nor price control," he said ^[4]. ICIR reported a full waiver of taxes and duties on petrol worth more than N3.3 trillion between January and 30 September ^[4].

Official statistics show how the war changed Nigerian pump prices. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put the average retail price at N1,051.47 in February ^[7]. It reached N1,288.54 in March and N1,532.93 in April ^[8]. In May the average was N1,596.25, up 55.31% on a year earlier ^[6]. Edo state had the highest average in May, at N1,722.91 ^[6]. The NBS averages cover all outlets nationwide, so they are not directly comparable with NNPC's Lagos price.

Will petrol and diesel be cheaper in South Africa in November?

South African motorists should see lower prices on Wednesday 4 November. The official figures from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) were still expected when this article went to press ^[12]. The projections below use Central Energy Fund (CEF) data reported by CAR magazine ^[11].

Most of the relief comes from tax, not oil. In his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 21 October, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana cut the general fuel levy ^[13]. From 4 November to 1 December, the levy falls by R3.00 a litre for diesel and R1.50 for petrol ^[13]. From 1 December to 5 January 2027, the cut narrows to R1.50 for diesel and R1.00 for petrol ^[13]. "These measures will provide R10 billion in support," Godongwana said ^[13].

Without the relief, prices would rise again. Before the levy cut, Stuff South Africa reported expected rises of 117 cents a litre for 93 petrol and 132 cents for 50ppm diesel ^[12]. After the cut, the CEF data point to decreases of 33 cents for 93 and 49 cents for 95 ^[12]. Diesel 50ppm should fall by R1.68 a litre and 500ppm diesel by R1.58 ^[11]. Illuminating paraffin, which is not covered by the levy cut, could rise by 274 cents a litre ^[12].

October brought record prices. Petrol 95 rose above R30 a litre for the first time, reaching R30.25 inland ^[13]. The 7 October adjustment added 333 cents a litre to 95 and 324.38 cents to 50ppm diesel ^[10]. The DMPR said average Brent rose from $87.89 to $101 a barrel over the review period ^[10]. It linked the rise to US–Iran tensions and uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz ^[10]. On 21 October, BusinessTech noted that the petrol relief did not fully offset the under-recovery seen at that point ^[13].

What are Kenya's EPRA pump prices until 14 November?

Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) raised maximum pump prices on 15 October ^[15]. In Nairobi, super petrol rose by KES 12.93 to KES 226.96 a litre ^[15]. Diesel rose by KES 9.90 to KES 227.76, and kerosene by KES 28.49 to KES 219.87 ^[15]. In Mombasa, super petrol costs KES 223.81 ^[15]. These prices apply until 14 November ^[15].

EPRA blamed import costs. Kenya imports all its fuel already refined ^[14]. The landed cost of super petrol rose from US$874.26 to US$977.55 per cubic metre between August and September ^[15]. That was an increase of 11.81% ^[15]. The shilling barely moved, averaging KES 129.91 per dollar in September against KES 129.72 in August ^[15].

Super petrol is now above its previous 2026 high of KES 214.25, set in May ^[14]. Diesel remains below its May peak of KES 242.92 ^[14]. EPRA also narrowed the gap between kerosene and diesel to discourage adulteration ^[14]. In Nairobi that gap is now KES 7.89 a litre ^[14].

Tax remains a risk. Prices include VAT at 8%, a temporary rate introduced in April in place of 16% ^[14]. Tech-ish reported that the lower rate runs to 14 January 2027 ^[14]. It estimated that a return to 16% would add about KES 17 a litre ^[14].

Has Egypt changed fuel prices this autumn?

No. On 15 October, Egypt's Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee (FAPC) decided to keep domestic prices unchanged ^[18]. Banker News reported that the decision holds prices until the end of December 2026 ^[19]. The committee reviewed exchange rates, Brent prices and global product prices ^[18].

Current prices date from 10 March 2026 ^[16]. That day, 95-octane petrol rose to EGP 24 a litre and 92-octane to EGP 22.25 ^[16]. Petrol 80 rose to EGP 20.75 and diesel to EGP 20.5 ^[16]. A 12.5 kg household butane cylinder rose to EGP 275 ^[16]. Prices were unchanged at those levels on 27 October ^[19].

The March rise came sooner than planned. In October 2025, the petroleum ministry said prices would be frozen for at least one year ^[17]. In March, the FAPC raised prices by 14% to 30%, above its usual quarterly limit of 10%, citing "exceptional conditions" in energy markets ^[18]. Egyptian Streets reported that the pound had weakened past EGP 52 per dollar at the time ^[16]. By 29 October, the dollar sold for EGP 56.11 at banks ^[20].

What to watch

• South Africa, 4 November. The DMPR's official adjustment will show whether the projected cuts hold: 33 to 49 cents for petrol, up to R1.68 for diesel ^[11,12].
• Nigeria, pump prices this week. Whether NNPC, MRS and independent stations pass on the Dangote cut. The N66 app discount has ended ^[1,3].
• Kenya, 14 November. EPRA's next review sets prices for the following month ^[15]. The VAT rate is another variable ^[14].
• South Africa, 1 December. The levy relief halves for diesel and falls to R1.00 for petrol, before ending on 5 January 2027 ^[13].
• Egypt, end of December. The current freeze runs to the end of the year, after which the committee's next quarterly review applies ^[19].
• Crude and exchange rates. In every market, Brent and the local currency remain the main inputs ^[10,15,18].

Alupetra follows crude, gasoline and diesel markets every day, and our daily coverage tracks the benchmark moves that feed into pump prices across Africa.