Gas Prices October 2026: US Gasoline, Heating Oil and Propane Outlook for Winter

How high are gas prices in October 2026?

The US average price of regular gasoline was $4.269 a gallon on 26 October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ^[1]. That is 1.5 cents lower than a week earlier but $1.234 higher than a year ago ^[1]. The motoring group AAA put its national average at $4.2258 on 29 October, against $3.0384 a year earlier ^[3].

Prices have now fallen for several weeks. AAA's September average was $4.33, which it describes as a record for that month and 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023 ^[4]. AAA links part of the October decline to the switch to winter-blend gasoline, which is cheaper to make ^[5]. It adds that crude oil above $100 a barrel is limiting further falls ^[3].

The 2026 level is not an all-time high. EIA's weekly series peaked at $5.006 in the week of 13 June 2022 ^[2]. This year's highest weekly reading so far was $4.500 on 11 May ^[2]. Before the conflict that began on 28 February, the price was $2.937 ^[2].

The contrast with expectations at the start of the year is sharp. In January, GasBuddy forecast a 2026 average of $2.97 a gallon, the first year below $3 since the pandemic ^[6]. The EIA now expects $3.91 for 2026 and $3.56 for 2027 ^[10].

Why are gas prices so different by region and in California?

Regional gaps are wide. On 26 October the Gulf Coast average was $3.702 a gallon, while the West Coast averaged $5.417 ^[1]. California stood at $5.888, down 14.3 cents on the week but $1.530 above a year earlier ^[1]. AAA's state ranking on 29 October ran from $3.42 in North Carolina to $5.94 in California ^[3].

California came close to its record this autumn. EIA's all-grades price for the state reached $6.227 in the week of 5 October, 4.4 cents below the June 2022 record of $6.271, according to California Today ^[7]. Two refinery closures explain part of the state's premium. Phillips 66 stopped processing crude at its 139,000 barrel-a-day Los Angeles-area plant in October 2025. Valero planned to end refining at its 145,000 b/d Benicia site by the end of April 2026 ^[7]. Together they removed about 17.5% of the state's capacity, according to California Energy Commission figures cited by the outlet ^[7].

State policy also moved. Governor Gavin Newsom suspended the summer-blend requirement on 28 September so that winter-grade fuel could be sold early ^[7]. The state excise tax rose to 63.4 cents a gallon on 1 July, which the outlet says explains only a small part of the gap ^[7].

What drives gasoline prices this winter?

Crude oil is the largest single cost in a gallon of petrol, at about half the retail price over time, according to the EIA ^[8]. Federal tax adds 18.4 cents a gallon, and state taxes averaged 33.55 cents in January 2026 ^[8]. With crude above $100, most of the year-on-year rise reflects the oil market rather than taxes or retail margins ^[3,7].

Refining margins matter too. The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) says gasoline crack spreads, the margin over crude, rose sharply in early September. It expects them to ease but stay above seasonal averages into early 2027, because US inventories are low ^[10]. It forecasts the retail price at $4.15 a gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026 ^[10].

Weekly data point to softer demand. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million in the week to 23 October, while refinery utilisation fell to 92.8% ^[9]. AAA reported that implied demand fell from 8.98 million to 8.38 million barrels a day over the same week ^[3].

How much will heating oil and propane cost this winter?

The answer depends on the fuel. The EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook, published on 6 October, expects heating oil households to spend $2,115 on average from November to March. That is 21% more than last winter ^[11]. It forecasts the heating oil price at $5.26 a gallon over the winter, 34% above last winter ^[11]. A milder Northeast is expected to cut consumption by 9%, which offsets part of the price rise ^[11,12].

Other fuels look cheaper. The EIA expects average spending of $640 for natural gas households, down 9%, and $1,246 for propane households, down 3% ^[11]. Electric heating bills are forecast at $1,196, up 4% ^[11]. Natural gas heats about 46% of homes, while heating oil is used by about 3%, mostly in the Northeast ^[11,12].

Current retail prices are already above the winter forecast. The residential heating oil price averaged $6.190 a gallon in the week of 19 October ^[13]. It was $6.112 in New England and $6.304 in the Central Atlantic states ^[13]. In Maine, where about half of homes rely on fuel oil, the average was $5.97, about 80% above a year earlier ^[14]. Residential propane averaged $2.689 nationally but $3.872 in New England ^[13].

The EIA's monthly path shows heating oil easing through the season, from $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March ^[11]. That forecast assumes crude prices fall from current levels ^[10].

Why are Northeast distillate stocks a concern?

Heating oil and diesel are both distillates, so they draw on the same tanks. East Coast distillate stocks were 21.8 million barrels on 23 October, against 25.5 million a year earlier and 24.0 million in the same week of 2022 ^[15]. New England held 2.47 million barrels, down from 2.65 million in mid-September ^[16]. National stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million in the same week ^[9].

The EIA says East Coast stocks were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September. It expects them to stay 20%–30% below through the winter ^[10]. National distillate stocks are forecast at about 11% below average in the fourth quarter. US distillate exports, meanwhile, rose 20% in the first seven months of 2026 ^[12]. The region leans on imports in deep winter, which reach about 15% of East Coast consumption from December to February ^[10].

Washington has responded with a loan from its emergency store. On 21 October the Department of Energy offered to lend up to 315,000 barrels. They come from the 1-million-barrel Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with deliveries due by 13 November ^[14,17]. The reserve has been used once before, after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 ^[17]. The volume equals about 13% of New England's current fuel oil supply ^[14]. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it "a temporary measure to solve a temporary supply disruption" ^[14]. Analyst Tom Kloza said it was "a very, very small volume" ^[14].

Futures reacted briefly. Heating oil futures fell towards $4.80 a gallon on the news, then traded above $4.90, against a record of about $5.20 in mid-September ^[18]. Borrowers must return the barrels, plus a premium, by the 2027–28 winter ^[17].

What to watch

• Weather. The EIA's base case assumes 12% fewer heating degree days in the Northeast than last winter. Its side cases run 10% colder or warmer ^[11].
• Crude and the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA forecasts Brent at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter. Its fuel price path depends on that assumption ^[10].
• Reserve deliveries. Barrels from the Northeast reserve are due by 13 November ^[14].
• Propane exports. US propane exports hit a record 2.1 million barrels a day in April. New terminal capacity of 300,000 b/d is due this year ^[19].
• The next outlook. The EIA's next STEO and winter update is due on 10 November ^[11].

Alupetra follows gasoline, diesel and heating oil markets daily, and its price pages are updated each morning.