Diesel and Gasoil Prices in Europe and the US — October 2026

How high are diesel prices in Europe right now?

The European Union's average pump price for diesel was €2.146 per litre in the week of 26 October, up 0.33% on the week and 40.4% on the year ^[2]. The record was €2.24 on 28 September; before the war, in the week of 23 February, the average was €1.59 ^[1]. Prices first peaked at €2.11 on 6 April, fell to €1.72 by 29 June after an interim ceasefire, and climbed again once the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed a second time in early July ^[1].

National prices differ widely because of taxes. In Germany the ADAC average was €2.289 per litre on 28 October, up 3.4 cents on the week, even though a 14-cent energy-tax cut took effect on 1 October ^[3]. French diesel averaged €2.378 in the week to 28 October ^[4]. In the United Kingdom, diesel reached a record 200.01 pence per litre on 2 October, above the previous record of 199.09p set in June 2022 ^[5]. In Türkiye, Petrol Ofisi's diesel price on 30 October was 96.70 lira per litre in Istanbul and 98.00 in Ankara ^[6].

Wholesale prices tell the same story. The Platts assessment for north-west European 10ppm diesel hit a record $1,642.25 per tonne on 15 September, more than double the $752.25 seen before the conflict ^[7]. Diesel refining margins reached a record of almost $95 a barrel in September ^[8].

Why is European diesel so expensive?

Europe imports a large share of its diesel, and the Gulf was one of its main suppliers. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), refined product shipments from the Middle East averaged 1.9 million barrels a day (mb/d) in September, against 4.7 mb/d before the war, and disruptions in the Middle East and Russia removed about 1.3 mb/d of diesel and gasoil exports year on year ^[9]. Middle East diesel arrivals in Europe fell to about 110,000 b/d in September from about 191,000 b/d in August, the lowest since 2020 ^[7].

Other suppliers have filled part of the gap. S&P Global estimates US diesel supply to Europe at about 360,000 b/d in the third quarter, against about 250,000 b/d before the war ^[7]. India exported about 620,000 b/d of diesel in September, a one-year high, with about 280,000 b/d going to Europe, according to Kpler data ^[18].

Russia remains a second constraint. It widened its diesel export ban to all producers in July after drone strikes on its refineries ^[10]. On 29 October Reuters reported, citing two sources, that the ban will be extended to the end of 2026 while producer export quotas rise to 2 million tonnes in November from 0.5 million tonnes in October ^[10].

Capacity has also shrunk. The 2025 closures at Grangemouth and Lindsey removed almost a quarter of the UK's remaining refining capacity, and the Fawley refinery is in a turnaround until December 2026 ^[7]. Inventories in the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp hub averaged 13.32 million barrels in October to date, about 6% more than in September, helped by imports of 233,000 b/d ^[19]. Traders still describe prompt supply as tight ^[19].

What is happening to diesel in the United States?

The US is a net exporter of diesel, but its own market is tight. Distillate inventories stood at 102.8 million barrels in the week to 23 October, about 10% below the five-year average and 8.3% below a year earlier ^[12,17]. The East Coast was 32% below its seasonal average in September, and the EIA expects it to stay 20%–30% below through the winter ^[14].

The US average retail diesel price was $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up 7.6 cents on the week and $2.634 on the year ^[13]. It peaked at $6.529 on 21 September, the highest in the EIA's weekly series; on 23 February it was $3.809 ^[13]. Regional prices range from $5.951 on the Gulf Coast to $8.155 in California ^[13].

Exports are a large part of the explanation. Weekly distillate exports reached a record of about 1.9 mb/d in August, much of it bound for north-west Europe ^[16]. Refinery utilisation was 92.8% in the week to 23 October ^[12]. Three closures — LyondellBasell Houston, Phillips 66 Los Angeles and Valero Benicia — removed 547,476 b/d of capacity, according to EIA figures compiled by Stock Titan, and Valero agreed on 29 October to buy the Houston site ^[15].

How are governments and refiners responding?

On 15 October the IEA's Governing Board agreed to accelerate the remaining release of about 100 million barrels from its March collective action, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel ^[9]. European energy ministers also authorised a 42-million-barrel release over three months, half of it diesel ^[17].

In Brussels, the European Commission opened a High-Level Dialogue with the refining industry on 28 October; it says EU refineries supply about 85% of the diesel used in Europe ^[11]. In Washington, President Trump said in September "let's not send out the diesel," but the White House then ruled out an export ban; the American Petroleum Institute warned that restrictions "would only compound the problem" ^[16]. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called a ban a "blunt tool" ^[7].

The IEA's view is that the strain will not ease quickly: in its October report it said constrained diesel supply could persist into 2027 ^[8].

What to watch into winter

• The Strait of Hormuz. The EIA's price path assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter; its forecast puts US retail diesel at $5.81 a gallon in Q4 2026 and $4.49 on average in 2027 ^[14].
• Russia's November order. A government order expected in early November should set the new export limits and exemptions ^[10].
• Tax relief. Germany's fuel-tax cut is due to end on 31 December, which would lift pump prices in January unless extended ^[3].
• Stocks. Whether US and ARA inventories rebuild after the autumn maintenance season or keep drawing as heating demand begins ^[12,19].
• Restarts. The Valero deal for the Houston refinery is due to close in the fourth quarter, with any restart not expected before the end of 2027 ^[15].

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