Petrobras Q3 2026 Results: Record Output, Profit Below Forecasts

How did Petrobras do in the third quarter?

Petrobras reported net income of 39.8 billion reais for the third quarter, up 21.5% from a year earlier but below the 46.62 billion reais analysts expected, according to Bloomberg via Rigzone ^[1]. Adjusted EBITDA rose 34% to 85.82 billion reais ($15.4 billion), short of the 95.59 billion reais consensus ^[1]. One-off charges, including an export tax on oil and diesel, cost the company $867 million ^[1].

Shareholder payouts of $2.7 billion were also below the $3.8 billion average of three analyst estimates, and the shares fell as much as 3.2% in São Paulo ^[1]. Citi analysts led by Gabriel Barra wrote: "We see the potential increase in 2027 capex guidance and changes in fuel pricing policy as the main concerns" ^[1].

How much oil did Petrobras produce?

Output was a record. Total production of oil, gas and gas liquids averaged 3.512 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 5.3% on the second quarter and 11.7% on a year earlier ^[2,3]. Oil production in Brazil reached 2.83 million barrels a day, up 12.4% ^[4]. New platforms drove the rise: the Alexandre de Gusmão FPSO at Mero peaked at 190,000 barrels a day in September, and the Almirante Tamandaré FPSO at Búzios set a monthly record of 263,000 barrels a day in July ^[3].

Downstream records followed. Refinery utilisation reached 99%, diesel production a quarterly record of 769,000 barrels a day, and exports of crude and products a record 1.251 million barrels a day ^[3]. China took 40% of Petrobras's oil exports ^[4]. On 10 November the company raised its 2026 oil production target to as much as 2.8 million barrels a day, from 2.5 million ^[1].

Why are investors worried?

Spending is rising. Petrobras lifted its 2026 capital expenditure target to $24 billion–$25.5 billion, from $19.4 billion, as it brings projects forward and faces cost inflation ^[1]. Analysts fear higher investment and lease costs could squeeze free cash flow and dividends next year ^[1]. Brent, which traded above $100 for much of 2026, was near $90 at the time of the results ^[1].

What to watch

• The 2027–2031 business plan, due by the end of November; the current plan totals $109 billion for 2026–2030 and assumed oil at $63–70 a barrel ^[1].
• New platforms. P-80 and P-82 at Búzios, each designed for 225,000 barrels a day, are due to start in 2027 ^[3].
• Fuel pricing. Analysts flagged possible changes to Petrobras's domestic fuel pricing policy as a key risk ^[1].

Alupetra follows Latin American crude supply and its growing role in Asian and European refining.