Americas Oil Supply in 2026 — US Shale, Guyana, Brazil and Vaca Muerta

How much can Americas oil supply grow in 2026?

Americas oil supply has become the main source of growth outside the Gulf since the war that began on 28 February. On 11 September the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the group of producers it calls the "Americas Quintet" dominates non-OPEC+ growth, adding 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026 and 1 mb/d in 2027 ^[1].

OPEC takes a more cautious view. Its Monthly Oil Market Report of 13 October forecasts liquids supply growth of about 0.6 mb/d in both years from countries outside the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). It expects that growth to come mainly from Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina ^[2].

The agencies group countries differently, so the figures are not directly comparable, but both put the Americas at the centre of growth.

Is US oil production at a record in 2026?

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 13.9 mb/d in 2026, up from 13.7 mb/d in 2025, and rise to 14.3 mb/d in 2027. These figures come from its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on 6 October ^[3]. The September edition had put 2026 output at 13.8 mb/d ^[4], so the forecast is edging closer to 14 mb/d. Monthly output reached 13.967 mb/d in April 2026, the highest monthly figure in the EIA data reported by Rigzone ^[5].

Two regions are driving the gains. The EIA expects the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico to average 6.8 mb/d in 2026, 3% more than in 2025. Output from the federal Gulf of America rose by about 200,000 b/d (10%) year on year in the first half, helped by projects such as Shenandoah and Ballymore, with four smaller projects due by year-end ^[4]. Prices have supported activity: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged $84/bbl through August, against $65/bbl in 2025 ^[4].

How are shale drillers responding to higher prices?

Drilling has picked up, but cautiously. In the week to 9 October, Baker Hughes counted 603 active US oil and gas rigs, the most since May 2024 and about 10% more than a year earlier. Oil rigs rose to 462, the highest since May 2025, and the Permian count reached 274 ^[6]. The rig count had fallen by 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024 and 7% in 2025 ^[6], yet output reached a record 13.7 mb/d in 2025 ^[3,6]. That points to more oil produced per rig.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's third-quarter energy survey, published on 30 September, shows the same mix. Its oil production index rose to 20.7 from 15.0. However, the business activity index slowed to 38.8 from 46.1, and the capital spending index for exploration and production (E&P) firms fell to 35.3 from 42.7 ^[7]. Firms are more positive about next year: the E&P index for expected capital spending rose to 17.1 from 0.0 ^[7].

Steep backwardation, where prices for future delivery sit below spot prices, helps explain the caution. WTI spot averaged $98.70/bbl during the survey period, but respondents expected $88.38/bbl at the end of 2026. One E&P executive said companies must "budget off of a $65 per barrel or $70 per barrel price" ^[7].

What are Guyana and Brazil adding offshore?

In Guyana and Brazil, growth comes from floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs).

Guyana produced 869,000 b/d in June 2026, according to government data reported by OilNOW. Its four FPSOs have a combined capacity of roughly 900,000–920,000 b/d ^[8]. The fifth, the Errea Wittu, arrived on 21 August to serve the $12.7 billion Uaru project and is designed to produce up to 250,000 b/d ^[9]. Guyana's Ministry of Natural Resources had pointed to a September start, while the minister said first oil was expected in the fourth quarter ^[9]. Platts, which reviewed a preliminary assay on 14 October, reported that the new Uaru Gold grade is expected to reach the market in December. The FPSO is expected to take Guyana's output above 1 mb/d for the first time ^[10].

Brazil's oil production reached a record 4.475 mb/d in June, according to data from the national regulator, the ANP. That was 19.1% more than a year earlier, and pre-salt fields supplied 82% of total output ^[11]. Petrobras reported record second-quarter oil and gas production of 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Its P-79 FPSO reached first oil in May, and its crude exports rose to nearly 1 mb/d. Three more FPSOs for the Búzios field are scheduled to start in 2027 ^[12].

How fast are Vaca Muerta and Canada growing?

Argentina is approaching 1 mb/d. Energy Secretariat data reported by Dolarhoy put oil output at a record 973,700 b/d in September, up 15.5% year on year. Vaca Muerta shale supplied about 670,000 b/d, or 71% of the total, against 64% a year earlier. The consultancy Montamat & Asociados says output could pass 1 mb/d in the fourth quarter ^[13].

Canada's growth depends on export pipelines. Reuters reported on 10 June that Canadian crude output had set a record of 5.3 mb/d in 2025 and was expected to exceed it in 2026. The Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), expanded in 2024, was then running at its full capacity of 890,000 b/d. A company executive said uncertainty in crude markets and the disruption at Hormuz had increased Asian demand for Canadian oil ^[14].

TMX throughput averaged 840,000 b/d in the second quarter, or 94% of capacity, with 510,000 b/d delivered to the Westridge marine terminal for export. Trans Mountain expects capacity to rise by about 90,000 b/d by the end of 2026 and is pursuing projects that could add up to 300,000 b/d ^[15]. On 29 September S&P Global forecast that oil sands output would average a record 3.5 mb/d in 2026 ^[16].

Can Americas barrels offset the lost Gulf supply?

Only in part. The IEA estimated on 18 September that flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 7.6 mb/d in August, 13.1 mb/d below pre-war levels ^[17]. Its September Oil Market Report said more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output was still shut in ^[1].

The IEA's analysis shows how the gap has been filled since the war began ^[17]:

• Producers outside the Gulf added 2.3 mb/d, or 420 million barrels in total. Between February and August the largest gains came from the US (+520 kb/d), Brazil (+470 kb/d), Kazakhstan (+440 kb/d), Venezuela (+300 kb/d) and Nigeria (+200 kb/d).
• Bypass routes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE offset 2.8 mb/d of lost Hormuz flows.
• Inventories fell at a record 2.8 mb/d over six months.
• Demand averaged 5.8 mb/d below February levels over the same period.

Against that shortfall, the 1.4 mb/d of Americas Quintet growth the IEA expects in 2026 ^[1] is less than a seventh of the Gulf output shut in during August. The gap is narrowing, however. The EIA assumes Middle East shut-ins of 4.5 mb/d in the fourth quarter ^[18], and Gulf crude exports had already recovered to 13.9 mb/d in September, over 75% of pre-war levels ^[19]. On the EIA's fourth-quarter figure, Americas growth would cover roughly a third of the remaining loss. So far, lower demand and stock draws, rather than new supply, have done most of the balancing.

What to watch

• Uaru start-up, which would lift Guyana above 1 mb/d ^[10].
• The EIA's November STEO, due on 10 November ^[3].
• US 2027 budgets, which the Dallas Fed survey suggests are set at prices well below spot ^[7].
• TMX expansion and Argentina's progress towards 1 mb/d ^[13,15].
• The Gulf recovery. The EIA expects most regional output back by the end of the second quarter of 2027 and a global surplus of 4.91 mb/d that year ^[18]. A surplus would weaken the price signal that has supported drilling in the Americas.

Alupetra follows supply developments in the Americas and the Gulf from its offices in Istanbul, London and Dubai.