Oil Price Forecast Next Week: Brent and WTI Outlook (9–13 November 2026)

How did oil prices move this week?

Crude experienced the sharpest volatility in months as political events dominated energy markets ^[2]. Prices gyrated from near 120 USD per barrel on 2 November to below 93 USD by 4 November—a 27 USD swing—before stabilising near 98–100 USD by week-end ^[1].

The catalyst was the Democratic midterm election victory on 5 November, capturing the House and Senate ^[2]. Markets interpreted the result as signalling a shift in Iran policy: Democrats pledged diplomatic channels to end the conflict, while Trump said no immediate new strikes were planned ^[2]. European and Asian energy markets mirrored the crude decline, with natural gas and LNG prices tumbling 2–3% ^[1].

The week's high-low span of 27 USD per barrel, combined with wide daily swings of 4–6 USD, underscored how fully geopolitical risk had been priced into October levels and how swiftly sentiment can reverse when political calculations shift. Refiners capitalized on the chaos: margins remain elevated, and refinery throughput stayed near full capacity as operators locked in strong product economics before any rapid thaw in the Middle East.

What drove oil prices this week?

Geopolitical pivot and Iran war risk reassessment dominated, overshadowing all other factors. US midterm results rewarded Democrats with unexpected gains in energy-rich districts, signalling voter backlash against the economic pain of sustained conflict. Markets acted on the signal quickly: analysts calculated that a Democratic-controlled Congress would face pressure to accelerate diplomacy with Iran, even if Trump retained executive power. The combination of potential legislative checks and renewed diplomatic energy was sufficient to erase the full "war premium" that had built through October.

Incremental signs of Hormuz supply recovery reinforced the dovish sentiment. Although shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at about 80% of pre-war levels and attack risk persists, data showed flows gradually stabilizing ^[4]. Qatar and UAE announced new export pipelines and diversification strategies (including purchases of US LNG as hedges), suggesting confidence that Middle East supply constraints would ease—not tighten—under Democratic leadership ^[4].

US shale discipline and refinery margin strength offered intermediate support. Major shale producers' conservative approach to capex at $100+ crude signalled that US supply would remain constrained into 2027, underpinning a floor for prices ^[3]. Simultaneously, refining economics remained exceptional: diesel and jet-fuel margins stayed at multiyear highs, with refiners shifting slate away from gasoline. ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Chevron each reported Q3 earnings doubled or tripled, suggesting robust enterprise cash generation even if crude prices moderate ^[3].

Natural gas and LNG supply tightness provided modest support to crude. Despite the crude crash, natural gas storage builds remained above seasonal norms, keeping Henry Hub pressured, while LNG spot prices stayed near 3x year-start levels, reflecting tight global supply ^[5]. However, this supply tightness was insufficient to arrest crude's slide, as traders prioritized Iran risk repricing ^[5].

The week's most important energy stories

1. Democrats sweep midterms, signal Iran war could end sooner — US midterm victory handed Democrats control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 2020; analysts priced in faster diplomatic push to end Iranian conflict. Senate Democrats pledged immediate peace negotiations.

2. Brent crude falls 17% in week as war premium erases — Oil fell from 120 USD to near 93 USD in five days, the sharpest weekly decline since the February 2026 start of the conflict, as markets repriced geopolitical risk.

3. Major oil majors report $56B combined Q3 windfall; refining dominates — ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies posted combined adjusted net income of USD 56.3 billion in Q3 2026, with refining operations capturing records on diesel and heating-oil premiums. Supermajors signalled intent to increase shareholder returns rather than boost capex.

4. US shale holds back on drilling despite $100+ crude — Largest American shale producers maintained conservative spending this year despite crude up USD 20 per barrel; capex discipline signalled supply constraints will persist.

5. US refineries shift toward diesel and jet fuel — Refiner output mix shifted as margins on middle distillates soared relative to gasoline; diesel and jet-fuel became the profit drivers.

6. Excelerate secures Bahamas LNG deal; US export reach expands — Caribbean LNG hub development signals growing market competition for US liquefied gas as buyers diversify away from Hormuz risks.

7. Shipping flees Black Sea as NATO-area attacks escalate — Shipowners refusing orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports over drone-attack risk highlight renewed geopolitical fragmentation of energy logistics.

8. Qatar and UAE hedge Hormuz risk with US LNG purchases — QatarEnergy signed 20-year deal for 3 mtpa Louisiana LNG; an extraordinary reversal from exporter to importer status in response to own-region vulnerability.

Brent and WTI forecast for next week

Base case (70% probability): Brent and WTI consolidate in the 98–106 USD range next week as markets await concrete signals on US-Iran diplomacy. Markets priced in a "peace dividend" of roughly 20 USD per barrel this week; the remaining question is whether talks will advance or stall. If negotiators announce a ceasefire framework or sanctions relief, prices could retest the 93–95 USD zone. If talks falter or Iran signals demands are incompatible, crude rebounds toward 105–110 USD. Most likely, sideways trading dominates as both sides continue careful signalling.

Upside risks (base case plus 5–8 USD per barrel): A breakdown in Iran-US diplomacy, renewed drone attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, or a sharp cutoff of crude exports would push traders back to supply-scarcity fears. Attacks on tankers off Bulgaria and Romania this week, combined with Iranian rhetoric rejecting US proposals, carry non-trivial risk of renewed escalation. Also upside: winter energy demand emerges faster than expected (cold snap in Northeast Atlantic), pushing global crude demand above current seasonal baseline.

Downside risks (base case minus 3–7 USD per barrel): An actual peace agreement or ceasefire announcement, accelerated US-Iran engagement, or signs of demand weakness in Asia (particularly China's slowing diesel exports) could drive crude below the low end of the range. Additionally, if stock markets continue rally following midterms and equities pull "risk-on," energy assets might underperform as typical cyclical underperformance during recession-avoidance rallies.

One-week volatility range: typical one-week Brent move over the past year averages 8.3%, which at current 99–100 USD levels translates to a normal weekly range of approximately 91–109 USD per barrel. This range—nearly 18 USD wide—reflects genuine uncertainty around the Iran peace process.

Natural gas, diesel and LPG: outlook for next week

Natural gas (Henry Hub): Base case points to sideways consolidation in the 2.50–2.75 USD per MMBtu range. Seasonally stout storage builds (77 Bcf this week, above norms) continue to weigh, while mild weather forecasts offer limited demand support. The market waits for the first genuine cold snap. If US temperatures slide 15–20 degrees below normal into late November, heating demand could spike and bounce prices toward 3.00 USD; absent a cold shock, prices drift lower through December on structural oversupply.

Diesel and refined products: Margins remain elevated near USD 1.80–2.00 per gallon above crude, but downside risks emerge if crude stabilizes and feedstock becomes cheaper. Diesel supplies remain tight globally; European stocks sit at decade lows and Asian refining is constrained ^[6]. However, if Middle East peace holds, Iranian and Venezuelan crude re-enter markets within 6–12 months, weighing on refined-product values. Next week, refined-product prices likely follow crude but with relative resilience: diesel could outperform if heating demand signals arrive ^[5].

LPG and propane: The Mont Belvieu complex (1.195 USD/gal) faces similar dynamics as natural gas. Storage levels and seasonal demand patterns will dictate; current mild weather continues to suppress winter premiums. Watch for shifts in heating demand as cold fronts approach.

What to watch next week

• 9 November — US Energy Information Administration weekly crude and petroleum inventory reports. Large draws would signal strong refiner demand and support crude, while builds might indicate demand softness.
• 9–13 November — Iran-US diplomatic statements or Qatar/mediator updates on peace negotiations ^[8]. Concrete progress toward a framework would support crude downside; stalling or rejection of terms would bounce crude back toward 105 USD ^[8].
• 11 November — European Central Bank policy meeting; euro strength or weakness could influence global crude (priced in USD) and cross-currency hedging flows.
• 12–13 November — OPEC+ meetings or ministerial comments on production policy ^[7]. Watch for signals on whether Riyadh plans to maintain recent production restraint or move toward higher quotas ^[7].
• Hormuz incident watch: Any new major attacks on tankers, drone strikes on regional infrastructure, or US military response would create immediate 3–5 USD per barrel swings.
• Winter weather monitoring: US and European forecasts for cold air intrusions; early November temperatures remain well above normal but Dec/Jan forecasts shifting slightly cooler. A cold-snap signal could reignite heating-demand hedging.

The path ahead hinges on the credibility and pace of Iran-US diplomacy: if peace talks accelerate and sanctions relief appears plausible, Brent could test 90 USD by year-end; if talks stall or collapse, a retest of 110+ USD remains realistic within weeks.

This outlook is analysis based on published data and news reports. It describes scenarios, not certainties, and is not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell.