Oil Price Forecast Next Week: Brent and WTI Outlook (2–6 November 2026)

How did oil prices move this week?

Brent crude rose 6.84 percent over the week to 123.1 USD/barrel, with mid-week volatility reflecting clashing narratives on US military strategy and Middle East de-escalation attempts. The benchmark opened strongly on supply-disruption fears, retreated Tuesday when Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Iranian officials convened in Tehran for security talks, then rebounded Wednesday as Houthi reports of fresh strikes on Saudi infrastructure—including Ras Tanura refinery—rattled traders [2, 3]. WTI finished 4.19 percent lower at 103.37 USD/barrel despite the week's risk recovery, suggesting US product demand concerns tempered crude strength.

What drove oil prices this week?

Three competing narratives held sway this week, each reflecting shifts in the nine-month-old Iran war's trajectory ^[4]:

Geopolitical de-escalation talks: Senior delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey journeyed to Tehran to explore a regional security framework, with Iranian leadership signalling openness to agreements that would reduce conflict probability ^[2]. Reports of a Wall Street Journal meeting between a top US commander and President Trump to discuss military options momentarily shifted market focus from immediate conflict risk to longer-term diplomatic uncertainty. Traders read the talks as a modest signal that military escalation might not resume immediately after US midterm elections on 3 November.

Houthi escalation and refinery targeting: Despite diplomatic overtures, Yemen's Houthis claimed fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including what they described as a ballistic missile strike on Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest refinery and export hub handling 550,000 barrels per day ^[3]. Saudi officials said they intercepted three ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province, four drones for the south, and two targeting Riyadh, with a fire contained at Ras Tanura after the incident ^[5]. The discrepancy between Houthi claims and Saudi denials leaves traders pricing a range of supply-impact scenarios.

Record refining economics and LNG hedging: Global refining margins hit unprecedented levels, with Shell capturing $42/barrel and Total $33.2/barrel in third-quarter operations ^[6]. Simultaneously, QatarEnergy is locking in 7 million tonnes per year of long-term North American LNG buys over two weeks—signalling preparedness for prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure and substituting Middle Eastern export disruption with US supply diversification ^[7]. These structural shifts suggest traders expect the supply crunch to persist well into 2027, supporting flat or inverted curves and futures premiums.

The week's most important energy stories

• Conflicting reports on US military planning sent oil wavering between supply-risk and diplomatic-optimism scenarios, leaving traders uncertain on post-election escalation odds ^[8]
• Shell and TotalEnergies posted third-quarter profits near nine-year highs, with $42 and $33.2/barrel refining margins driving $10.8 billion and $9.1 billion earnings respectively ^[9]
• Europe announced release of 42 million barrels from strategic reserves over three months—a direct policy response to diesel tightness and winter supply uncertainty ^[10]
• QatarEnergy aggressively bought 7 million tonnes per year of US LNG to hedge long-term Hormuz disruption risk, locking in North American supply as Middle East exports remain constrained ^[7]
• October recorded 28 confirmed or reported hostile acts in the Strait and adjacent waters—more than any prior month—with 11 very large crude carriers damaged since February, damaging 3.5% of the global VLCC fleet ^[11]
• OPEC+ is expected to hold production quotas unchanged when it meets Sunday, with Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq confirming status-quo policy despite elevated prices and geopolitical tension ^[12]

Brent and WTI forecast for next week

Base case: Brent consolidates in the 115–125 USD/barrel range next week, with WTI trading 100–108 USD/barrel. Traders will digest midterm election results (3 November) for hints about post-vote Trump military posture toward Iran. Diplomatically, the signals from Tehran talks and Saudi engagement appear to have lifted a portion of crisis-event premium from the $30+ risk buffer embedded in current Brent levels. However, fresh Houthi attacks, ongoing Hormuz congestion (>50 tankers reported stuck in the Gulf), and record refining margins sustain a floor under crude. US inventories release Wednesday (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) may provide technical support or resistance depending on data surprise; consensus anticipates continued commercial draws outside the strategic reserve. LNG demand strength—driven by European winter loading and QatarEnergy's hedging spree—will floor natural gas, supporting refined-product cracks and diesel forward curves.

Upside risks: (1) Fresh military strikes on Iran or Saudi infrastructure trigger risk-premium acceleration; (2) Trump victory signals or post-election military announcements resurrect escalation fears; (3) Houthi attacks damage major refining, export or LNG infrastructure, removing incremental supply; (4) OPEC+ signals production cuts rather than maintaining status quo; (5) Geopolitical tensions widen to other fronts (Israeli politics, Ukraine escalation). Based on 8.1% weekly Brent volatility, prices could reach 133.48 USD/barrel in a true risk-off reversal ^[1].

Downside risks: (1) Successful de-escalation diplomacy and a Trump post-election delay of military action erode risk premium; (2) Stronger-than-expected US economic data trigger recession fears and demand destruction scenarios; (3) Warm weather forecasts deepen natural gas weakness and reduce heating demand; (4) Central bank policy shifts (Fed pause, ECB surprise) rattle equity markets and risk appetite. Downside could test 113.53 USD/barrel (the 8.1% one-week low) if diplomatic momentum builds.

Volatility context: The typical one-week move for Brent over the past year has been 8.1%, or roughly $10 per barrel in either direction from a midpoint. Current positioning and thin liquidity around US midterms may amplify intra-week swings to $15–20 moves during risk-off reversals or supply-shock rallies.

Natural gas, diesel and LPG: outlook for next week

Natural gas: Henry Hub is likely to remain under pressure from unseasonably mild weather, robust production and yesterday's large storage build ^[13]. Winter forward curves (November through March) have already collapsed despite LNG demand strength, with regional basis pricing split sharply—southern US markets firming on LNG feedgas demand while Appalachia and the Northeast remain oversupplied ^[14]. Expect consolidation near $2.60–2.90/MMBtu until a cold-snap forecast materializes. European natural gas will outperform as winter demand begins, Qatar's force majeure continues through December, and LNG flows remain constrained by Hormuz closure and rerouting ^[15].

Diesel and refined products: Diesel remains the global crunch point despite—and because of—Europe's 42-million-barrel strategic release. The fact that governments must intervene suggests private supply remains tight. Expect NY Harbour ULSD to hold 4.50–4.80 USD/gallon, with strength driven by Atlantic arbitrage and Saudi discounting (Aramco offered Europe below-OSP spot cargoes this week) ^[16]. Premium middle distillates and naphtha will stay elevated as refining margins support operations but global demand destruction from electrification keeps throughput stable.

LPG: Mont Belvieu propane gained 6.18% this week to 1.203 USD/gallon and should hold 1.15–1.30 USD/gallon range next week, benefiting from US export strength and Asian buying ahead of winter ^[1]. Saudi propane availability is rising as Saudi Arabia increases crude output and refining throughput, but US export competition and shipping rerouting around Cape of Good Hope keep arbitrage windows favourable for Atlantic supply.

What to watch next week

• Tuesday, 3 November: US midterm elections; traders will immediately price presidential and congressional results for implications on Iran policy, energy regulation and LNG export approvals.
• Wednesday, 4 November: US Energy Information Administration Weekly Petroleum Status Report (inventories, refinery runs, product demand); consensus looks for modest crude draws and stable gasoline as product demand remains sluggish.
• Friday, 6 November: Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count; drilling activity trends will signal whether producers are sustaining capex amid price strength or cutting activity into the winter.
• Ongoing: Monitor Houthi attack claims against Saudi infrastructure (refining, export terminals, pipelines) and US Central Command response for supply-disruption risks.
• Ongoing: Track Tehran security talks and any escalation signals from Trump administration officials between now and year-end for long-dated risk premium.

Traders who act on geopolitical shifts within the first 24–48 hours of news often capture outsized moves in both crude and refined products; slower-moving hedgers should lock in forward prices around current levels if winter diesel and LNG demand look secure.

This outlook is analysis based on published data and news reports. It describes scenarios, not certainties, and is not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell.