Brent Price Forecast 2027 — What the EIA, IEA and Major Banks Expect

Where is Brent trading now?

Any Brent price forecast for 2027 starts from an unusual position. Brent futures settled at $116.72/bbl on 23 October, the highest close since 29 April, after Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure ^[1]. In early trading on 26 October Brent eased to $114.51 on hopes of easing tensions, after Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran ^[2]. Physical crude is dearer still. In mid-October the International Energy Agency (IEA) put North Sea Dated at about $134/bbl, against futures near $107/bbl ^[3].

Every base-case forecast reviewed here puts the 2027 average well below current prices. They differ on how quickly prices fall. On 20 October IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said he saw no credible path to 2027 being a year of normalisation ^[4].

What do the EIA, IEA, OPEC and IMF expect for 2027?

EIA. The US Energy Information Administration's October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published on 6 October, forecasts Brent at $105/b in the fourth quarter of 2026, $87/b in the second quarter of 2027 and $74/b in the fourth. That gives annual averages of $96/b in 2026 and $84/b in 2027 ^[5]. The EIA expects a 2026 shortfall of 1.34 million barrels per day (mb/d) to turn into a 4.91 mb/d surplus in 2027, rising from 3.03 mb/d in the first quarter to 6.23 mb/d in the fourth ^[6]. It assumes Middle East shut-ins average 4.5 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2026. It expects most regional production to be back to pre-conflict levels by the end of June 2027, helped by a new UAE bypass pipeline ^[5].

IEA. The IEA's Oil Market Report of 14 October does not forecast prices. It expects demand to recover by 2 mb/d in 2027, leaving it 620 kb/d below 2025, while supply rises by 7.7 mb/d. It sees balances in deficit until the end of 2026. Gasoil stocks are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027 ^[3].

OPEC. OPEC's October Monthly Oil Market Report does not give a price forecast either. It expects demand to grow by 2.55 mb/d in 2027 to 108.3 mb/d, supported partly by the need to rebuild inventories ^[7].

IMF. The International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook assumes an average crude price of $95.74/bbl in 2026 and $87.39/bbl in 2027. These figures are based on futures prices and average Brent, Dubai Fateh and WTI ^[8]. The baseline assumes Hormuz shipping recovers to pre-war levels between March and October 2027 ^[9].

What are the banks forecasting for Brent in 2027?

Bank forecasts change often. The table shows the most recent figure we could verify for each, with its date.

| Forecaster | Date | Q4 2026 | 2027 | Main assumption | |---|---|---|---|---| | EIA | 6 Oct | $105 | $84 | Most Gulf output back by end-Q2 2027 ^[5] | | IMF (three-crude average) | 13 Oct | — | $87.39 | Hormuz shipping normal between March and October 2027 ^[8,9] | | Goldman Sachs | 11 Oct | $90 (Dec) | $80 | Gulf output 0.3 mb/d below February 2026 levels ^[10] | | Morgan Stanley | 13 Oct | $105 | $100 (Q1 only) | Depleted stocks, high freight costs ^[11] | | BMI | 5 Oct | $107 | $81 | Preliminary Hormuz deal in Q1 2027 ^[12] | | HSBC | 9 Sep | — | $85 | Hormuz liquids flows of 9.5 mb/d by mid-2027 ^[13] | | Fitch Ratings | 23 Sep | — | $70 | Rating agency's base-case price deck ^[14] | | Citi | 3 Sep | $70 | $65 | Hormuz reopens, surplus larger than before the war ^[15] | | JPMorgan | 17 Sep | none | none | Baseline withdrawn ^[16] |

Four of the seven 2027 figures in the table sit between $80 and $85. A median of nine estimates compiled by Estadão's Broadcast service was $87 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $80 for 2027 ^[17]. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts at the end of September put the 2026 Brent average at $89.05. Most respondents expected a return to surplus in 2027 ^[18].

Dates matter. The Citi and HSBC figures came before the mid-September attacks that disrupted Saudi exports, when daily Brent peaked at $131/b ^[5]. On 17 September JPMorgan said it no longer had a baseline view because it could not model the conflict's endgame ^[16]. Morgan Stanley's 13 October note gave no full-year 2027 figure. It argued that expensive freight favours short-haul Brent, and named a lasting normalisation of Hormuz traffic as the main risk to that view ^[11].

What assumptions drive the 2027 Brent forecasts?

• Gulf flows. This is the main variable. In September total Hormuz flows reached 10.9 mb/d ^[3]. HSBC expects Hormuz liquids flows of 9.5 mb/d by mid-2027, plus 6.8 mb/d through Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines, against pre-war Hormuz flows of 19–20 mb/d ^[13]. BMI expects full normalisation to take six to 12 weeks after a preliminary deal ^[12].
• Inventories. Global observed stocks were 509 million barrels below end-February levels by the end of September ^[3]. Rebuilding them would add to demand, and OPEC cites restocking as one support for 2027 demand growth ^[7].
• Demand. The agencies disagree. The EIA expects consumption of 104.64 mb/d in 2027, against production of 109.55 mb/d ^[6]. The IEA sees demand still below 2025 levels ^[3].
• Supply elsewhere. BMI notes that spare capacity outside the Gulf is largely used up and that the US shale response has been muted ^[12].

What could push Brent higher or lower in 2027?

Upside. Goldman Sachs says Brent could average about $125 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 5 mb/d below February 2026 levels. The bank sees the risks to its forecast tilted to the upside ^[10]. In HSBC's stalemate scenario, where diplomacy fails and Hormuz flows stay near current levels, Brent rises to about $120 before easing in the third quarter of 2027 ^[13]. In the IMF's adverse scenario the war is unresolved by June 2027 and shipping through Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is effectively paralysed. Prices could then climb to $130, returning to baseline only in the fourth quarter of 2027 ^[9].

Downside. Goldman sees Brent in the $60s if Gulf output is 1 mb/d above February 2026 levels ^[10]. HSBC's recovery case, a lasting ceasefire in the fourth quarter of 2026, produces a 2027 surplus above 3 mb/d and Brent in the $70s by early 2028 ^[13]. BMI's own path falls to $67 in the fourth quarter of 2027 ^[12]. Fitch's stress case assumes $45 for 2027 ^[14].

Diesel is a separate risk. The IEA expects gasoil to stay tight well into 2027 ^[3]. Product markets could therefore stay strong even if crude eases.

What to watch

The next data points are the EIA's November STEO, due on 10 November ^[19], and the IEA and OPEC monthly reports. The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on 29 November is expected to settle production policy for 2027 ^[20]. Tanker flows through Hormuz and the Red Sea, the gap between Dated and futures prices, and the pace of stock rebuilding will show which scenario is unfolding. Any forecast for 2027 depends first on Gulf exports.

Alupetra follows crude price forecasts and physical market signals from its Istanbul, London and Dubai offices.