Urea Prices by Region, November 2026: Why Egypt Costs More Than China

Where do urea prices stand by region?

Daily indicative assessments published by CommodityScope for 6 November give a clear snapshot of the spread across export and import hubs ^[1]:

• Egypt, granular FOB: $517.50 a tonne, down $12.50 on the day.
• Nigeria, granular FOB: $466.50.
• Middle East, granular FOB: $440.
• Brazil, granular CFR: $470.
• NOLA (US Gulf), granular FOB barge: $425.50 per short ton.
• China, prilled FOB: $341.50.

The World Bank's monthly series, which tracks the Middle East benchmark, averaged $420 a tonne in October 2026, slightly above $407.50 in September and less than half of April's $856.9 peak ^[2]. That makes the World Bank figure useful for trends, but it is a monthly average, not a daily price.

So the market is now in a narrow band of roughly $420–520 a tonne for most granular urea, with Chinese prilled product well below it. The reasons for each position are different.

Why is Egyptian urea the most expensive?

Egyptian urea is the most expensive mainly because Egypt is short of gas and sells into Europe. Egyptian granular rose to about $535 a tonne FOB in November contracts, roughly 17% above September's $457, according to the country's chemicals and fertilizers export council ^[3]. Producer Kima reported a 20% cut in its gas supply from 1 November ^[3], and on 8 November Reuters reported a further 33% reduction notified to producers, as the government tries to limit costly LNG imports ^[4]. Less gas means less urea for export.

Location matters too. Egypt is the closest large exporter to European buyers, and Europe's own production is expensive: an Australian Fertilizer Corporation market note on 26 October said Egyptian sales at $535 FOB were likely heading to Europe ^[5]. When European gas is high, buyers there pay more for nearby supply, and Egyptian prices follow.

Why is Chinese urea the cheapest?

Chinese urea is the cheapest because China controls how much leaves the country, and producers with large stocks accept lower netbacks. Fertilizer Daily reported that China set a 2026 export quota of about 3.3 million tonnes, roughly a third below the 5 million tonnes shipped in 2025, with FOB floor prices of $430–440 a tonne for most destinations ^[6].

Those floors apply mainly to granular product. Prilled urea, which many Asian buyers use, trades lower: the Australian Fertilizer Corporation estimated Chinese prilled netbacks at $345–350 FOB in late October, against $440 FOB for Chinese granular ^[5]. The same note said Chinese inventories were large and domestic demand subdued ^[5]. When export volumes are capped, sellers with quota compete for the available tonnes, which pushes prilled values down.

Why do Brazil and the Gulf sit in the middle?

Brazil is the largest unsubsidised importer, and it buys mainly from the Gulf, Qatar, Nigeria and China. In late October, CFR Brazil prices rose to $476–488 a tonne, with Chinese cargoes offered at $470–475 CFR and Qatari and Nigerian product at $485–500 ^[7]. A Nobel Trading report cited in the same article linked the rise to higher European gas prices and limited supply ^[7]. Brazil's urea and ammonium sulphate imports fell 21% to 7.95 million tonnes in January–September ^[7], which suggests that farmers cut use as prices climbed.

Middle East FOB prices are held back by the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers can sell only what they can ship, and buyers discount cargoes that carry war risk and uncertain timing. In late October, Middle East granular traded at $447.50 FOB, while hull war-risk premiums for Gulf transits stood at roughly 7.5–10% of vessel value, against about 0.25% before the conflict ^[8]. The Gulf price therefore reflects a delivery risk, not just production cost.

What about US farmers and the NOLA market?

US farmers pay much more than the barge price, because NOLA is a wholesale hub and retail prices add inland freight, storage and dealer margins. DTN's retail survey for 19–23 October put urea at $674 a short ton, down 0.1% from September but 12.7% higher than a year earlier ^[9]. Anhydrous ammonia was $987, up 17.2% on the year ^[9]. On a nitrogen basis, urea cost $0.73 a pound of N, compared with $0.60 for anhydrous ^[9].

NOLA barge urea was $425.50 per short ton on 6 November ^[1]. The gap to retail is normal, but it shows that the recent fall in world prices has reached US farms only partly.

How does India fit into regional pricing?

India sets the floor for much of the market. As the largest importer, taking roughly 8–10 million tonnes a year ^[10], its tenders often mark the lowest price at which large volumes trade. In the tender that closed on 7 October, the lowest offers were $352.10 a tonne CFR for the east coast and $356.25 for the west coast, about 10% below the August purchase ^[11]. India's importer bought only about 410,000 tonnes of the 1.7 million sought, as most sellers declined to match the low price ^[5].

The next tender is expected to be large. The Australian Fertilizer Corporation said on 2 November that India could seek about 2.5 million tonnes, with an indicative lowest price of $370–375 a tonne CFR ^[12]. A large tender at that level would pull Chinese prilled values up slightly and could cap granular prices elsewhere.

What could change the gaps?

Three factors could narrow or widen today's spreads:

1. Gas prices. Ammonia, which shares urea's gas input, has risen sharply: the Yara–Mosaic November contract settled at $645 a tonne CFR Tampa, $95 above October, on higher European gas and curtailed production ^[13]. If gas stays high, Egyptian and European-linked prices will stay at a premium.
2. Hormuz. A safe-passage deal would release Gulf cargoes and narrow the discount on Middle East FOB prices ^[8].
3. China's export rules. Any change to quotas or floor prices would move Chinese values first, and then the Indian tender price ^[6].

What to watch

• India's next urea tender and the lowest prices offered by each coast ^[12].
• Egyptian gas allocations and whether the 33% cut is reversed ^[4].
• Chinese export quotas and floor prices for 2027 ^[6].
• Brazilian import volumes ahead of the next planting season ^[7].
• The World Bank's November urea average, due in early December ^[2].

Alupetra follows urea and nitrogen markets from Istanbul, London and Dubai; Alupetra does not deal with sanctioned parties.