Brazil Urea Imports 2026: Lower Volumes, Higher Prices and the Safrinha Risk

Why does Brazil matter so much for urea?

Brazil is one of the largest fertiliser markets in the world and imports most of what it uses. Brazil consumed more than 49.1 million tonnes of fertiliser in 2025, about 88% of it imported, according to the national fertiliser association Anda ^[1]. Rabobank puts 2025 deliveries at a record 49.7 million tonnes ^[2].

Unlike India, Brazil has no fertiliser subsidy. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) notes that unsubsidised importers such as Brazil and Southeast Asia absorb most of the demand adjustment when prices rise ^[3]. In practice, Brazilian farmers decide each season how much nitrogen they can afford, and their decisions move world prices.

How much urea has Brazil imported in 2026?

Less than last year. Brazil imported 25.37 million tonnes of all fertilisers in January–August 2026, the lowest for that period since 2023, at an average price of $394.47 a tonne, the highest since 2022 ^[4]. Urea imports over the same months were 2.82 million tonnes ^[4].

The slowdown deepened after the summer. In the first 13 business days of September, daily fertiliser arrivals averaged 137,300 tonnes, 29.9% below September 2025 ^[4]. A Nobel Trading report cited by UkrAgroConsult put urea and ammonium sulphate imports for January–September at 7.95 million tonnes, down 21% ^[5]. Rabobank, measuring to the end of September, estimates a 25% fall in the same products ^[2]. The two figures differ in method, but both show a large drop.

Forecasts for the full year point the same way. Analysts quoted by UkrAgroConsult expect total fertiliser imports of 40–41 million tonnes in 2026, more than 10% below the record 45.5 million tonnes of 2025 ^[4]. The Australian Fertilizer Corporation said in early November that Brazil's 2026 urea imports could end 20–30% below normal ^[6].

What are Brazilian buyers paying?

Brazilian urea prices sit in the middle of the world range. In late October, CFR Brazil prices rose to $476–488 a tonne from $464–482 a week earlier, with actual granular trades at $475–490 ^[5]. Chinese cargoes were offered at $470–475 CFR for Aratu and Paranaguá, and Qatari and Nigerian product at $485–500 ^[5]. On 6 November, indicative CFR Brazil granular urea was assessed at $470 ^[7].

The Nobel Trading report linked October's rise to higher European gas prices, which lifted the estimated cost of producing urea in northwest Europe to $740 a tonne from $678, and to limited supply ^[5]. For comparison, the World Bank's monthly Middle East urea price was $420 a tonne in October ^[8], so freight, insurance and supplier premiums add a significant amount by the time urea reaches a Brazilian port.

Rabobank's stress scenario shows how exposed Brazil is: in a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it estimated Brazilian urea prices could rise by more than 100% within three months ^[9].

Where does Brazil's urea come from now?

From a wider mix than before. Gulf producers, normally major suppliers, have shipped far less because of the Hormuz disruption. China has filled part of the gap: Brazil was among the top three destinations for Chinese urea exports in August 2026, behind Vietnam and South Korea ^[10]. Qatari and Nigerian cargoes continue to compete for Brazilian demand ^[5].

The import pipeline is recovering slowly. A Williams Brasil line-up compiled on 1–9 October showed 6.199 million tonnes of fertiliser scheduled to arrive by 24 December, up about 10% from the September line-up, with Santos taking about 36% and Paranaguá about 16% ^[11]. The line-up does not split volumes by product.

Can local production help?

Only at the margin. Petrobras restarted its FAFEN-BA and FAFEN-SE nitrogen plants and was supplying about 10% of Brazil's urea market in the first quarter of 2026 ^[1]. FAFEN-SE has annual capacity of 650,000 tonnes of urea, and the ANSA plant in Paraná 720,000 tonnes ^[1].

Operations have been uneven. ANSA suspended fertiliser production from 30 April after a compressor room incident, FAFEN-SE stopped after a power failure, and FAFEN-BA cut output for maintenance ^[1]. Even at full output, domestic plants cover a small share of Brazilian demand, so imports will remain decisive.

What does this mean for the safrinha corn crop?

The main risk is timing. Rabobank warns that the shortfall in urea and ammonium sulphate imports is unlikely to be made up before the end of the year, which raises the risk of supply constraints for second-crop (safrinha) corn ^[2]. Farmers will need that fertiliser from January 2027 ^[2].

Rabobank expects Brazil's fertiliser deliveries to fall 9.6% in 2026 and to recover by 5% to 46.6 million tonnes in 2027, still below the 2025 record ^[2]. It expects farm margins to stabilise in 2027, with a more meaningful improvement only towards the end of the 2027/28 season ^[2]. If urea arrives late or costs more, some farmers may cut nitrogen rates, which can affect corn yields.

What to watch

• Monthly import data for October and November, which will show whether buyers are catching up before January ^[4,5].
• CFR Brazil prices against Middle East and Chinese FOB values ^[5,7].
• Gulf shipping: a Hormuz reopening would quickly add supply for Brazil ^[9].
• Chinese exports, now one of Brazil's main alternative sources ^[10].
• Petrobras plant operations, which affect a small but useful share of supply ^[1].

Alupetra follows urea and nitrogen trade into Latin America from Istanbul, London and Dubai; Alupetra does not deal with sanctioned parties.