Key figures
- $91.32Brent crude per barrel in Asian trade on 12 November; WTI was at $85.32.OilPrice
- 9 million barrelsUS crude stock build in industry estimates, against an expected 1 million-barrel draw.Rigzone
- 2.6 million b/dthe fall in global oil consumption the IEA projects for 2026, as cited by CMS Prime.Rigzone
How far have oil prices fallen?
Brent crude traded at $91.32 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $85.32 on 12 November, after both fell by more than $1 in Asian trade, OilPrice.com reported [1]. Rigzone put Brent around $91.62 and WTI near $85.49 later in the day, both down about 1.2% [2]. The slide follows the steepest weekly fall since March 2020: Brent dropped below $98 on 6 November, down more than 13% for that week, and Trading Economics says it is now more than 20% below its October peak [3]. Brent was at $112.34 on 30 October [4].
Why are oil prices going down?
Three things are weighing on prices.
Peace hopes. Markets are reacting to the latest round of Ukraine talks, which included a prisoner exchange but no peace deal, and to signs of diplomacy over Iran [1]. Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities Investment told Reuters: "Markets are falling on expectations that behind-the-scenes efforts are underway to secure a ceasefire" [1]. Trading Economics notes that Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions relief and its frozen assets released before it reopens the Strait of Hormuz [3]. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said none of Iran's enriched uranium will leave the country, Reuters reported [1].
More supply. OPEC reports showed higher October production; Saudi Arabia said its output rose 26% [1,3].
US stocks. Industry estimates showed US crude inventories rising by about 9 million barrels, against an expected decline of 1 million barrels, after a 5.267 million-barrel draw the week before [2].
Continued attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz limited the losses [1].
Is the market heading for a surplus?
Some analysts think so. Terri-Leigh Bennett of CMS Prime said: "Oil's biggest threat may now be the return of supply before demand recovers" [2]. She cited International Energy Agency projections that global oil consumption will fall by about 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with supply averaging about 100.7 million barrels a day before recovering in 2027 [2]. ING strategists pointed to "expectations of improving Middle Eastern supply availability and bearish US inventory data" [1].
What to watch
- Price levels. CMS Prime watches $90 for Brent and support around $85 for WTI [2].
- Official US inventory data after the industry estimate of a 9 million-barrel build [2].
- Iran diplomacy and Hormuz. Any agreement that reopens the strait, or new attacks on shipping [1,3].
- Pump prices. Lower crude is already reaching drivers in some markets; Türkiye cut diesel by 5.40 lira a litre on 7 November [4].
Alupetra tracks Brent and WTI every morning on its price pages and follows the physical market from Istanbul, London and Dubai.
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Sources
- OilPrice.com — Oil prices sink as Iran and Ukraine peace optimism builds (12 November 2026). oilprice.com (opens in a new tab)
- Rigzone — Analyst flags oil's biggest threat (12 November 2026). rigzone.com (opens in a new tab)
- Trading Economics — Brent crude set for biggest weekly drop since Covid (6 November 2026). tradingeconomics.com (opens in a new tab)
- Endeks24 — Motorine 5 lira 40 kuruş indirim geldi, İstanbul'da litre 95 liraya indi (7 November 2026). endeks24.com (opens in a new tab)
This article is for information only and is not investment, legal or trading advice. Figures are as reported by the sources cited on the date of publication.
