US Urea Prices in 2026: NOLA, Retail Costs and Farmer Affordability

Where are US urea prices now?

Two prices matter in the United States: the wholesale barge price at New Orleans (NOLA), where imported and domestic urea is traded, and the retail price farmers pay their dealers.

At NOLA, granular urea barges were assessed at $425.50 per short ton on 6 November ^[1], slightly below $435.75 on 27 October ^[2]. That is far below spring levels. In April, NOLA urea had climbed above $700 a short ton from the $400s ^[3], and StoneX reported that it rose by $230 a ton, or 49%, in the first six weeks after the Strait of Hormuz closed ^[4].

Retail prices have not followed NOLA down. DTN's survey of retail dealers for 19–23 October put urea at $674 a short ton, almost unchanged from $675 a month earlier but 12.7% higher than a year before ^[5]. Anhydrous ammonia averaged $987 (up 17.2% on the year), UAN28 $447 and UAN32 $486 ^[5]. In DTN's survey, seven of the eight main fertilisers rose in October; urea was the only one that fell, and only slightly ^[5].

Why is retail urea so far above NOLA?

Part of the gap is normal. Retail prices include river and rail freight, storage, handling, financing and dealer margins, and dealers price off inventory they bought earlier, sometimes at higher cost. A NOLA price of $425.50 ^[1] and a retail price of $674 ^[5] imply a spread of about $250 a ton (our calculation), which reflects these costs and the timing of purchases.

The other part is uncertainty. Ammonia, the base of all nitrogen fertilisers, has become more expensive again: the Yara–Mosaic November ammonia contract settled at $645 a tonne CFR Tampa, up $95 from October, as European gas rose and production in the region was cut ^[6]. Dealers facing higher replacement costs for some products are reluctant to cut urea prices quickly.

How affordable is urea for corn growers?

Less affordable than in a normal year. A common measure is how many bushels of corn it takes to buy one ton of urea. In spring 2026, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) put that figure at 185 bushels, a record, compared with a peak of 124 bushels in 2022, when corn traded above $7.50 ^[4].

The ratio has improved since. With December corn futures at $4.3925 a bushel on 9 November ^[7] and retail urea at $674 a ton ^[5], a ton of urea costs about 153 bushels (our calculation). That is better than the spring record but still well above the 2022 peak, because corn prices are much lower now than they were then.

The farmdoc daily team at the University of Illinois showed the impact per acre. Comparing April prices with the six months before the conflict, Illinois anhydrous ammonia rose from about $828 to $1,123 a ton, and the fertiliser cost of an anhydrous-based corn programme rose from $190 to $217 an acre ^[8]. Higher corn and soybean forward prices offset some of that increase at the time ^[8].

How did farmers respond in 2026?

Many could not buy everything they wanted. An American Farm Bureau Federation survey of about 5,700 producers, presented to a House committee on 16 April, found that nearly seven in ten crop farmers could not buy all the fertiliser they needed for the 2026 season ^[9]. An NCGA survey of more than 600 farmers in late March and early April found that 60% had nitrogen fully purchased or secured, and half planned only partial application rates ^[4].

Nitrogen became a bigger share of costs. Fertilizer Daily, citing AEI.ag, reported that nitrogen made up about 21% of corn production costs, against a long-term average of 17%, and that each $30 a tonne rise in urea adds roughly $15–20 an acre to nitrogen expenses ^[9]. Washington also eased logistics: a 60-day Jones Act waiver from 17 March allowed 23 domestic shipments by 30 April, including two ammonia cargoes ^[9].

Why is the US better placed than other importers?

Cheap domestic gas. The World Bank's US natural gas price averaged $2.96 per million British thermal units in October 2026, against $28.50 in Europe ^[10]. That gives US nitrogen plants a large cost advantage and keeps domestic supply flowing, even when imports are disrupted. CoBank has said US farmers have not cut nitrogen applications as much as phosphate and potash, where cuts reached 10–15% ^[11].

But the US is not immune. It still imports part of its urea and UAN, NOLA prices respond to world markets, and CoBank expects fertiliser prices to stay above pre-war levels through 2028 because of plant damage and tight supply in the Middle East ^[11].

What does 2027 look like?

Farmers are more worried about next year than this one. In the NCGA survey, for every farmer concerned about 2026 fertiliser prices and availability, nearly two were concerned about 2027 ^[4]. The outlook depends on three things:

1. The Strait of Hormuz. A lasting reopening would release Gulf urea and could pull NOLA prices lower before spring.
2. Ammonia and gas costs. Rising ammonia prices in Tampa and Europe would support nitrogen prices generally ^[6].
3. Corn prices. At current corn values, every move in urea has a large effect on the affordability ratio ^[7].

What to watch

• DTN's weekly retail survey, to see whether lower NOLA prices pass through to dealers ^[5].
• NOLA barge prices for winter and spring delivery ^[1].
• Tampa ammonia settlements for December ^[6].
• Corn futures and the bushels-per-ton ratio ^[4,7].
• Fall application of anhydrous ammonia, which reduces spring demand for urea ^[8].

Alupetra follows urea, ammonia and gas markets from Istanbul, London and Dubai; Alupetra does not deal with sanctioned parties.