Key figures

  • 10.56 million b/dSaudi Arabia's October crude output as reported directly to OPEC, up 26% from September.Rigzone
  • 9.194 million b/dSaudi October output according to the secondary sources OPEC uses for compliance checks.Rigzone
  • 1.91 million b/dIran's October output by secondary sources, the lowest in about four decades.Rigzone

How much oil did Saudi Arabia produce in October?

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it produced 10.56 million barrels a day in October, according to the group's monthly report, which Bloomberg saw and Rigzone carried [1]. That is 26% more than in September and the highest level since before the war [1,2]. Rigzone says October output was only a few hundred thousand barrels a day below February, when Riyadh raised production ahead of the conflict, and slightly above the kingdom's OPEC quota [1].

The figure OPEC uses to check compliance is much lower. The secondary sources, the external estimates OPEC relies on, put Saudi October output at 9.194 million barrels a day [1]. Rigzone notes that the kingdom has been moving crude through an alternative pipeline to its Red Sea coast [1]. Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser aims to "maximize production going forward in the fourth quarter," Rigzone reported [1].

What did Iraq and Iran report?

Iraq told OPEC that its output rose to almost 4.9 million barrels a day, a wartime high and above its agreed limit [1]. Secondary sources put Iraq at 4.491 million barrels a day, roughly in line with its quota [1]. Iran gave OPEC no figure of its own; secondary sources estimated its October output at 1.91 million barrels a day, the lowest in about four decades [1]. The United Arab Emirates left OPEC in May, so its output no longer appears in the report [1].

Tanker-tracking data point the same way. Kpler data cited by Reuters show Middle Eastern crude flows, including bypass pipelines, averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in September and 16.3 million in October [4]. UAE crude output rose above 3.9 million barrels a day in September, against 3.4 million before the war, and Iraqi flows reached 3.35 million barrels a day in October, about 150,000 barrels a day below pre-war levels [4].

Why does it matter for oil prices?

More Gulf supply is one reason prices have eased. Trading Economics listed the 26% rise in Saudi October output among the factors behind Brent falling below $98 a barrel on 6 November, which left it down more than 13% for the week [2]. Reuters reported that spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude also weakened: the Dubai cash premium to swaps fell to 65 cents a barrel early in the week of 2 November, the lowest since July, after averaging about $8 a barrel the month before [4]. Traders blamed unsold December-loading cargoes of Oman, Murban and Iraqi crude [4].

What to watch

  • OPEC+ on 29 November. Ministers meet online to set output targets for 2027 [1]. In October a sub-group of seven members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia kept November quotas unchanged, with quota increases paused until the end of 2026 [3].
  • Self-reported versus secondary-source data. The gap for Saudi Arabia and Iraq will shape how OPEC+ judges compliance [1].
  • Gulf export routes. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the bypass pipelines decide how much of the extra output reaches buyers [4].

Alupetra follows Gulf crude supply and OPEC+ policy every day from its offices in Istanbul, London and Dubai.

Free tools for this topic: Historical oil prices · Statistical price range · Oil price & unit converter · All tools

Sources

  1. Rigzone (Bloomberg) — Saudis tell OPEC production surged to highest since war began (11 November 2026). rigzone.com
  2. Trading Economics — Brent crude set for biggest weekly drop since Covid (6 November 2026). tradingeconomics.com
  3. World Oil — OPEC+ holds November oil production targets steady as supply remains constrained (4 October 2026). worldoil.com
  4. Baird Maritime (Reuters) — War premiums fade as Middle East crude floods Asian buyers (5 November 2026). bairdmaritime.com

This article is for information only and is not investment, legal or trading advice. Figures are as reported by the sources cited on the date of publication.