India's Crude Imports in 2026 — Why Refiners Are Turning Back to the Gulf

How much crude is India importing in 2026?

India's crude imports in 2026 have been reshaped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. India is the world's third-largest crude importer, and before the war it bought about half of its crude from the Middle East ^[1]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that imports fell by 760,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from February to 4.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April. Saudi shipments to India dropped from 0.9 mb/d to 400 kb/d over the same period ^[2], and India bought no Iraqi crude in April ^[1].

Volumes have stayed below normal since. Swarajya reported total imports of 4.44 mb/d in August, down 8.8% on July ^[3]. In September, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Reuters, imports from the Middle East rose 32% to 2.8 mb/d. That was the highest since February and 54% of the total ^[4].

The cost has risen much faster than volumes. Data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), reported by Indian media, showed a September import bill of $15.4 billion, up 46% year on year. For April–September the bill rose 46.3% to $90.6 billion, even though volumes in recent months were flat or lower than a year earlier ^[5]. The Indian crude basket averaged $116.09/bbl in September and $121.25/bbl in the first part of October ^[5].

How has India's Russian oil intake changed?

Russia's share has swung widely this year.

• January: Reuters reported that refiners were scaling back Russian purchases during talks on a US–India trade deal. Hindustan Petroleum, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy had stopped buying ^[6].
• February–March: The US removed tariffs on Indian goods linked to Russian oil purchases in February. On 5 March the US Treasury issued General License 133, allowing Indian companies to receive Russian oil already loaded at sea ^[7]. Bloomberg reported that India received 1.9 mb/d of Russian crude in March, the most since June 2022 ^[8].
• April: Russian purchases fell by 380 kb/d to 1.6 mb/d, though imports of the ESPO grade from Russia's Pacific coast reached a record 310 kb/d. The IEA said March volumes had been inflated by floating storage released under the US waiver ^[2].
• July–August: Kpler put Russia's share as high as 56% in July ^[9]. In August Russian volumes fell 16.5% to about 2.1 mb/d ^[3].
• September–October: Imports from Russia fell 14% to 1.8 mb/d in September, although Russia remained the largest single supplier ^[4]. Bloomberg data showed shipments to India averaging 310,000 b/d in the four weeks to 4 October, the lowest since March 2022 ^[9].

Policy risk has also risen. On 18 September the US President signed a sanctions law that allows tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. India said it "remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security" for its 1.4 billion people ^[10]. Bloomberg reported that New Delhi had not asked refiners to cut Russian imports ^[9].

Why are Gulf grades winning back Indian refiners?

Price is the main reason. In early October, Russian crude for November delivery was offered at premiums of more than $10/bbl to Dated Brent, having previously sold at steep discounts ^[9]. China, which has lost Iranian supply, is now competing directly for Russian barrels ^[11].

Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) shows the shift. Russian crude made up 37% of its supply in the July–September quarter. On 26 October its head of finance said Middle East grades were "more commercially attractive for the company now". Reuters reported that BPCL's November Russian purchases would be significantly reduced because of higher shipping costs ^[11]. Premiums for Russian crude have since fallen to $1–2/bbl over regional benchmarks for December cargoes, from as much as $13/bbl for October cargoes ^[11].

Gulf sellers are competing hard. Middle Eastern producers are offering cargoes at discounts to the Dubai/Oman benchmark, some on a delivered basis with part of the freight paid ^[12]. In a tender for December delivery, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) bought 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy at about $7.20/bbl below November Dubai quotes, delivered to Mundra. It also bought 2 million barrels of Basrah Medium at about $2.25/bbl below Dubai for Paradip ^[13]. Greater supply has narrowed the Oman–Dubai spread to $4.22/bbl, from as much as $65 in March and about $30 in mid-September ^[14].

Freight widens the gap between routes. Financial Express data cited by OilPrice in late August showed ^[15]:

• Ras Tanura to India (VLCC): $4.34/bbl in August, against $0.85 before the war;
• Ust-Luga to India (Suezmax): $19.90/bbl, against $8.40 in February;
• Corpus Christi to India: $15.86/bbl, against $6.35 before the war.

Goldman Sachs puts the global average crude freight rate above $20/bbl, against $3 a year ago ^[16]. A refinery source told Reuters that shorter voyages from the Gulf of Oman favour Middle Eastern oil ^[11].

Which other suppliers are filling the gap?

Indian refiners have widened their supplier base. After nine months without purchases, India took 283 kb/d of Venezuelan crude in April, and Kpler expected about 417 kb/d in May. Brazil was the fourth-largest supplier in April, and volumes from Nigeria and Angola were rising ^[1].

Contracts are changing too. In January BPCL awarded Trafigura one-year tenders for Omani and Iraqi crude from April, including four Oman cargoes a quarter at 75 cents/bbl below Dubai ^[6]. During the war, refiners suspended some Middle East term purchases and bought more spot crude, including from Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador. IOC now plans to reduce slightly the Middle East share of its annual term deals for fiscal 2027/28, from a planned 47% ^[12].

How exposed are Indian refineries and stocks?

Many large Indian refineries are configured for heavier, higher-sulphur crudes. That suits Middle Eastern and Venezuelan grades ^[1,12]. The IEA reported that refinery runs fell in India, China and South Korea after the loss of Hormuz flows, cutting gasoil output in the second quarter ^[17].

Stocks have provided a buffer. In May Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India held 69 days of crude stocks and 45 days of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply ^[18]. LPG imports fell to 370 kb/d in April, less than half their pre-war level ^[2]. Retail gasoline and diesel prices had been essentially unchanged since June 2022, which the IEA said had become "extraordinarily costly for India" ^[2]. By late May, oil marketing companies had raised pump prices four times in under a month ^[1].

What does the shift mean for Indian Ocean crude flows?

Three changes stand out.

• More short-haul Gulf crude: Shell's chief executive said in early October that Middle East flows were near 80% of pre-war levels ^[9]. Part of that crude moves via shuttle runs through Hormuz and ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman ^[14,16].
• Russian barrels shifting east: Kpler's Sumit Ritolia said China's imports of Russian crude had been increasing for months ^[9]. Russian seaborne crude flows to Asian buyers, mainly China and India, averaged 3.43 mb/d in the four weeks to 18 October ^[19].
• Tight tankers: Goldman Sachs warned that high freight rates may reduce refiners' overall demand for crude ^[16].

What to watch

• Russian premiums for December and January cargoes. BPCL said its Russian purchases may rise towards the end of the year ^[11].
• Any US tariff decisions on major buyers of Russian oil under the new law ^[10].
• Security in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, and its effect on freight ^[14,16].
• Term contract talks for fiscal 2027/28, starting with IOC's Middle East volumes ^[12].

Alupetra follows crude sourcing and freight across the Indian Ocean from its Istanbul, London and Dubai offices.