Russian Oil Exports in 2026 — Sanctions, Price Cap and the Shadow Fleet

How large are Russian oil exports in 2026?

Russian oil exports in 2026 have moved less in volume than in value, as revenue has tracked prices driven by the war in the Gulf. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated combined crude and product exports at 6.52 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September. Revenue rose $3.6 billion on the month to $17.67 billion, which was $4.32 billion more than a year earlier ^[1].

The path through the year was uneven. In April exports were 7.0 mb/d and revenue reached $19.2 billion ^[3]. Revenue then rose to $20.97 billion in May before falling to $15.72 billion in June and $13.76 billion in July ^[2]. For comparison, Russia earned $158.31 billion from oil exports in the whole of 2025 ^[2]. The price of Urals crude at Primorsk averaged $96.42/bbl in April, $57.18/bbl in July and $94.30/bbl in September, the second-highest level since February 2022 ^[1,2,3].

Upstream and refining are under strain. OPEC's secondary sources put Russian crude output at 8.64 mb/d in September, the lowest since mid-2020 and the tenth monthly decline in a row ^[4]. Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly hit refineries and ports ^[3,5]. Product exports fell to 1.36 mb/d in July, less than half their 2022 average ^[2]. Braemar cited estimates that up to 45% of Russian refining capacity is offline ^[5].

Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic: how are export routes changing?

Ports have been disrupted on every main route.

• Baltic: A two-week outage at Ust-Luga and lower loadings at Primorsk cut Baltic crude loadings from about 1.5 mb/d to 760 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in the week of 30 March ^[3]. Primorsk loadings appeared to stop for about three days in October ^[4].
• Black Sea: Urals exports from Sheskharis, the Novorossiysk terminal, fell to 160 kb/d in the week of 6 April, and the Tuapse refinery was struck on 20 April ^[3]. Reuters reported that freight for Russian oil and fuel has risen sharply because of Black Sea security risks ^[5].
• Arctic: Rosneft commissioned its Vostok Oil project on 6 September. Seven tankers had carried about 6 million barrels along the Northern Sea Route by early August, nearly half of the 2025 total ^[6]. Satellite data showed dark ship-to-ship (STS) transfers of Arctic cargoes in the Sea of Japan on 7 September ^[6].

Information is also thinner. A Russian decree of 28 September restricted public disclosure of refinery output, export contracts, shipping routes and tanker positions ^[4].

Who is buying Russian crude?

India and China remain the main outlets. Bloomberg tanker data showed flows to Asian buyers, principally China and India, averaging 3.43 mb/d in the four weeks to 18 October. Total seaborne crude exports averaged 3.59 mb/d ^[4]. India imported 1.8 mb/d in September, down 14% on August. Russia's share of India's imports fell from 46.6% to 33.5%, although it remained the largest single supplier ^[7]. China has turned to Russian crude after losing Iranian supply, which has raised prices for Indian buyers ^[7].

Other buyers matter at the margin. In April Egypt took about 200 kb/d of Urals, and Druzhba pipeline flows to Hungary and Slovakia partly resumed ^[3]. Türkiye is among the traditional destinations for Russian diesel: when loadings resumed at Primorsk in October, at least two tankers signalled Türkiye and Brazil ^[5].

What is the oil price cap in 2026?

The EU, aligned with the UK, cut the cap on Russian crude to $44.10/bbl from 1 February. Under a new dynamic mechanism the cap is set 15% below the average Urals price over the previous 22 weeks and reviewed every six months ^[8,12]. In June Reuters reported that the European Commission was considering leaving the cap unchanged at its July review. It also noted that up to 30% of seaborne Russian oil was still traded under the cap, with the rest moving via a "shadow fleet" ^[9].

The 21st sanctions package, adopted on 23 July, paused the automatic adjustment until 15 July 2027 and kept the cap at $44.10 ^[10]. Product caps stand at $100/bbl for products trading at a premium to crude and $45/bbl for those at a discount ^[11]. Other EU measures this year include:

• a ban, from 21 January, on EU purchases and imports of products refined in third countries from Russian crude ^[12];
• a legal basis for a full maritime services ban in the 20th package (April), which can be activated only in agreement with G7 and price cap coalition partners ^[13];
• transaction bans on the ports of Murmansk, Tuapse, Olya and Vysotsk, on Indonesia's Karimun Oil Terminal and on Georgia's Kulevi refinery ^[10,13].

What has the US done?

US policy has moved in several directions. Rosneft and Lukoil were designated in October 2025 ^[14]. After the Gulf war began, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 133 for India on 5 March and a global General License 134 on 12 March. Both covered Russian oil already loaded on tankers ^[14]. A later version, 134C, covered cargoes loaded by 17 April and ran to 17 June ^[15].

On 18 September the President signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. It allows tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, with the President deciding rates and waivers. It also targets shadow fleet owners, operators, managers and insurers ^[16]. On 9 October the President announced that Russia would supply diesel to the US and world markets, with US sanctions on Russian fuel temporarily lifted. A 40,000-tonne diesel cargo bound for New York appeared on tracking systems on 23 October ^[17]. On 16 October an executive order waived new sanctions mandated by the act ^[18].

How is the shadow fleet being targeted?

Western listings keep growing. The EU's 21st package added 41 vessels, taking its total above 670. It also listed five bunkering tankers and a crewing agency, allowed member states to confiscate cargoes on detained shadow fleet vessels, and designated a person linked to fraudulent ship registries ^[10]. On 8 October the UK added 12 tankers, taking its total above 600, and designated Zarubezhneft ^[19].

Physical enforcement continues. On 13 October French forces boarded the tanker DF Peak south of Réunion over doubts about its flag. Reuters reported that it was at least the fifth Russian-linked tanker France has seized since 2024 ^[20]. The US is considering a separate step. Reuters reported in October that Washington was weighing allowing previously sanctioned tankers to carry non-sanctioned oil, with Treasury authorisation. The Department of Energy said this would not help Russia move its oil ^[19].

Compliance checklist for traders

• Attestations: Under EU guidance, traders keep evidence that oil was bought at or below the cap. Insurers, shipowners and managers collect per-voyage attestations within 30 days of loading, with a new one for each STS transfer ^[11].
• Records: Keep records for at least five years and provide itemised costs such as freight and insurance on request ^[11].
• Vessel screening: Check EU, UK and US lists, verify flag and registry validity, and watch for gaps in automatic identification system (AIS) signals, frequent reflagging, dark STS transfers and opaque ownership ^[10,13].
• Above-cap history: A vessel that carried Russian oil bought above the cap can lose access to EU services for Russian oil for 90 days after unloading ^[11].
• Counterparties and origin: Screen listed ports, refineries and traders, and confirm the crude origin of refined products bound for the EU ^[10,12].
• US position: Check current OFAC licences and any tariff decisions under the new law before each deal ^[16,18].

Alupetra follows sanctions, shipping and crude-flow developments from its offices in Istanbul, London and Dubai.