Dated Brent vs Brent Futures — Why Physical Crude Costs More in 2026

How far has Dated Brent traded above Brent futures?

The gap between Dated Brent and Brent futures has been a defining feature of the 2026 oil market. Dated Brent is the price of physical cargoes loading in the coming weeks. Brent futures, traded on ICE, price crude for delivery further ahead. Normally the spread between them is narrow and the two move together ^[1].

That changed after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. On 19 March Platts assessed Dated Brent at $117.435/bbl, more than $46 above its end-February level. Its April Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) assessment hit $6.94/bbl, the highest since Platts began assessing it in 2000 ^[2]. In early April Dated rose to more than $25/bbl above front-month futures, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) ^[1]. Platts assessed Dated at a record $144.42/bbl on 7 April, above the previous high of $144.22 set in 2008 ^[3,4]. North Sea Forties reached an all-time high of $146.43/bbl on 9 April ^[5].

The premium faded as Gulf supply returned. On 22 June Forties traded at a $1 discount to Dated, against a record $21.50 premium in April ^[6]. It returned in September, when North Sea Dated rose by $26.17/bbl month on month to $116.89/bbl. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the 11 September bombing of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and soaring freight rates added to the rally ^[7]. In mid-September Dated rose above $130/bbl for the first time since April, while Brent futures settled near $104/bbl ^[8].

When the IEA wrote its October report, Dated was around $134/bbl and Brent futures around $107/bbl. Other North Sea grades traded up to $160/bbl ^[7]. Platts assessed Dated at $125.975/bbl on 15 October ^[4]. Brent futures settled at $116.72/bbl on 23 October, their highest settlement since April ^[9].

How is Dated Brent assessed?

Several agencies publish Dated Brent assessments, including S&P Global Platts and Argus ^[1]. Reuters reports that Dated Brent is used to price more than 60% of globally traded crude ^[5]. Under the Platts methodology ^[10]:

• Basket. Six grades are eligible: Brent-Ninian Blend, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll and WTI Midland. Together they represent more than 2.5 mb/d of production. WTI Midland, added in 2023, was the first grade from outside the North Sea.
• Loading window. The assessment reflects cargoes loading from 10 days to one month ahead, a window set in 2015.
• Most competitive grade. The most competitive grade on each day sets the price, which is assessed at 16:30 London time.
• Market on Close (MOC). Bids, offers and confirmed trades are published during a daily MOC process.
• Delivered offers. Since 2019, cargoes offered on a CIF Rotterdam basis can count. They are netted back to a free-on-board (FOB) value using a freight adjustment factor.

ICE Brent futures work differently. Trading in a contract ends on the last business day of the second month before delivery ^[11]. In April, for example, the front-month contract reflects oil loading in June, delivered through the cash BFOE forward market ^[12]. The contract is deliverable through an exchange for physical (EFP), with an option to cash settle against the ICE Brent Index ^[11]. In short, Dated is the prompt physical price, while futures price a later month. Platts notes that timing differences alone can account for many price differences, with backwardation or contango shaping the gap ^[12].

Why does physical crude trade above futures?

When near-term supply is short, buyers pay more for crude they can load now than for crude months away. This is backwardation. The EIA linked the April spread to "extreme market tightness in the very short term" after Hormuz closed, as refiners competed for replacement cargoes ^[1]. Reuters reported strong competition from Asian and European refiners for barrels from outside the Middle East ^[5].

The forward curve shows the same pattern. In mid-May, the July 2026 Brent contract traded $29.34/bbl above July 2027, according to Barchart ^[13]. On 12 October, the 2027 Brent strip set records near $90/bbl. Front-month Brent settled near $106/bbl the next day ^[14]. The EIA forecasts that Brent will average $105/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84/bbl in 2027 ^[15]. The same structure is visible in diesel, where the IEA says steepening backwardation has signalled the need for more supply ^[7].

Individual grades show how acute the scramble can be. Johan Sverdrup traded at a 60-cent premium to Dated on 8 September. In mid-September it was offered at up to $35/bbl over Dated ^[8].

What role is freight playing?

Freight is now a large part of the delivered cost of crude. In a note on 21 October, Goldman Sachs put the global average crude freight rate above $20/bbl, against $3/bbl a year earlier. It attributed $7/bbl to the Hormuz war-risk premium and $4 each to ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf and higher marine fuel prices. Inefficient tanker allocation added $3 and the blockage of Iran's fleet $2 ^[16]. In mid-September, moving crude from the US to Asia cost about $26/bbl ^[8].

High freight changes relative values. Goldman said freight widens crude price differentials. Producers that rely on distant buyers may have to discount more heavily, while crude from centrally located producers, such as Brent in northwest Europe, may gain ^[16]. That helps explain why Atlantic Basin grades close to European refiners rose so sharply. The IEA adds that record tanker rates have eroded refining margins outside North America ^[7].

Why are Middle East crude differentials falling?

Platts Dubai, a benchmark for Middle East medium sour crude, has followed its own path. Platts assesses it partly through "partials", 25,000-barrel trades in which the seller can deliver Dubai, Oman, Upper Zakum, Al-Shaheen or, with a quality premium, Murban ^[17]. Cash Dubai peaked at a premium of more than $60/bbl in March. By 23 June it had slipped to a 27-cent discount as Gulf supply rose ^[6]. On 26 August Platts assessed October cash Dubai and Oman at $9.38/bbl over Dubai futures, with Murban at $14 ^[18].

Late October brought a new divergence. Bloomberg reported on 23 October that physical prices of some Middle East crudes sold outside the Gulf had dropped while futures rose. Iraqi Basrah Medium sold at almost $10/bbl below physical Dubai, on a ship-to-ship basis in the Gulf of Oman. A month earlier it had been offered near parity. Oman's premium over Dubai fell to a three-month low ^[19]. Sellers have become better at moving cargoes through Hormuz, and offers now come with assurances of getting oil out of the Gulf ^[19].

On 26 October Bloomberg reported that some Iraqi cargoes had sold at discounts of more than $25/bbl to Dubai before shipping. Aramco's trading arm sold some prompt Khafji at up to $10/bbl below Dubai, and Indian refiners are turning to these barrels ^[20]. Gulf crude exports reached 13.9 mb/d in September, over 75% of pre-war levels, according to the IEA ^[7].

Checklist for buyers pricing cargoes

A wide gap between physical and paper prices creates risk for anyone pricing or hedging cargoes:

• Know the reference. A cargo priced against Dated Brent near loading can cost far more than the futures price on screen. In 2026 the gap has exceeded $25/bbl ^[1,7].
• Hedge the basis. A futures hedge does not cover the spread between Dated and futures. Contracts for difference (CFDs) and DFL swaps exist for that exposure ^[11,12].
• Compare delivered costs. FOB discounts on Gulf crude must be weighed against freight of more than $20/bbl ^[16].
• Check the pricing window. Dated reflects cargoes 10 days to a month ahead, while futures price later months ^[10,12]. In steep backwardation, the dates in a pricing clause matter.
• Watch grade spreads. Grade premiums can swing quickly. Forties moved from a record $21.50 premium in April to a $1 discount in June ^[6].
• Follow the outlook. The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on 10 November ^[15].

Alupetra follows benchmark and differential moves as part of its crude oil sales advisory work in Istanbul, London and Dubai.