OPEC+ Spare Capacity in 2027 — Quotas, Shut-ins and the November Meetings

What did OPEC+ decide for November 2026?

At an online meeting on 4 October, the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to keep their September required production for November ^[1,2]. They are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. It was the second monthly pause in a row ^[2]. The group was eight until the United Arab Emirates (UAE) left OPEC and OPEC+ with effect from 1 May ^[3]. For 2027, the bigger question is OPEC+ spare capacity: how much oil members can really produce and export once Gulf shipping returns to normal.

November required production is 10.478 million barrels per day (mb/d) for Saudi Arabia, 9.949 mb/d for Russia and 4.431 mb/d for Iraq. Kuwait's figure is 2.676 mb/d, Kazakhstan's 1.628 mb/d, Algeria's 1.007 mb/d and Oman's 0.841 mb/d. The total is 31.01 mb/d ^[1]. The seven finished unwinding a 1.65 mb/d voluntary cut from 2023 in September. About 2 mb/d of group-wide cuts agreed in 2022 remain in place until the end of 2026 ^[2,4].

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews the market but does not set policy, met the same day ^[4]. It expressed concern about attacks on energy infrastructure ^[5].

How do OPEC+ quotas compare with actual Gulf output?

For the Gulf members, the quotas are not the limit on output. The IEA estimates Saudi Arabia supplied 8.3 mb/d of crude in September, 2.18 mb/d below its implied target. Kuwait was 1.18 mb/d below target at 1.49 mb/d, and Iraq 0.33 mb/d below at 4.1 mb/d. Russia was 1.52 mb/d below target at 8.43 mb/d ^[6]. Its September output slipped after Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure ^[7].

OPEC's secondary sources give lower figures for September: 8.001 mb/d for Saudi Arabia and 3.920 mb/d for Iraq ^[3]. Saudi Arabia itself reported 8.372 mb/d to OPEC ^[7]. On OPEC data, the seven core members pumped about 25 mb/d in August, roughly 5 mb/d below pre-war February levels ^[4].

The binding constraint is logistics: Gulf exports have been disrupted by the war ^[4]. In September, total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 10.9 mb/d, and Gulf crude exports reached 13.9 mb/d, over 75% of pre-war levels ^[6]. Exports via Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which bypasses the strait, rose to 5.6 mb/d ^[6]. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates Middle East crude shut-ins averaged 4.8 mb/d in September. That was down from 5.8 mb/d in August and a peak of 10.9 mb/d in May ^[8].

The recovery remains exposed to new attacks. On 23 October Brent settled at $116.72/bbl, its highest close since 29 April, after Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure ^[9].

How much spare capacity does OPEC+ really have?

Spare capacity and shut-in capacity are not the same thing. The IEA's October table puts sustainable capacity at 12.11 mb/d for Saudi Arabia, 4.87 mb/d for Iraq and 2.88 mb/d for Kuwait ^[6]. Against September supply, that leaves about 6 mb/d unused across the three (our calculation from IEA data). Yet the IEA counts only 0.27 mb/d of effective spare capacity across the whole of OPEC+, with no entry for any of the three ^[6]. Capacity that cannot reach export markets offers little protection against a new outage.

The picture for 2027 depends on export routes and on quotas. The EIA assumes shut-ins average 4.5 mb/d in the fourth quarter. It expects most regional production to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027, helped by a UAE bypass pipeline due in 2027 ^[8]. If that happens and the three produce at their November required levels, the IEA's capacity figures imply about 2.3 mb/d of headroom: 1.6 mb/d in Saudi Arabia, 0.4 mb/d in Iraq and 0.2 mb/d in Kuwait (our calculation). The UAE's capacity no longer counts towards OPEC+. Its September output was 3.917 mb/d ^[3].

Who owes compensation cuts?

Compensation cuts are extra reductions that members which over-produced in the past agree to make. In June, OPEC+ extended the deadline for these cuts to the end of 2026; the previous schedules ran to the end of June ^[10]. By mid-October an updated schedule had not been published ^[3].

Some members are still above target. The IEA put Kazakhstan's September supply at 1.86 mb/d, 0.24 mb/d above its target and above the IEA's estimate of its sustainable capacity, 1.83 mb/d. Oman was 0.05 mb/d above target ^[6]. Nairametrics noted that supply returned to the market has lagged the headline increases, because of limited capacity at some members and compensation requirements at others ^[1]. While Gulf producers cannot reach their targets, compensation has little effect on supply. It will matter again once they can.

What must OPEC+ decide for 2027?

Two meetings remain this year. On 1 November the seven meet online and are expected to set December plans. On 29 November a full ministerial meeting, alongside the JMMC, is expected to settle policy for 2027 ^[5]. Reuters reported in July that the group was likely to leave targets unchanged in the fourth quarter as attention shifted to 2027 quota talks ^[11].

The 29 November agenda is heavy:

• New baselines. In November 2025 OPEC+ approved a mechanism to base 2027 quotas on each member's maximum sustainable capacity (MSC). MSC is output that can be reached within 90 days and sustained for a year ^[12,13]. US consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton is assessing all members except Russia, Iran and Venezuela ^[13,14]. Russia and Venezuela have a separate assessor ^[12]. Iran's 2027 figure is to be its average August–October 2026 output, as measured by secondary sources ^[12]. IEA data show Iranian supply of 2.16 mb/d in August and 1.94 mb/d in September, against capacity of 3.8 mb/d ^[6].
• A delayed review. The assessment was due by the end of September. Reuters reported on 2 October that it is now expected by mid-November, because the war disrupted expansion projects and not all members had submitted data. The findings could still be considered at the late-November meeting ^[14].
• The 2022 cuts. Bloomberg reported that ministers must decide whether to restore another layer of output halted in 2022, partly depending on the capacity audit ^[5].
• Cohesion. The UAE left after pushing for a higher quota, and Iraq is also seeking one, according to sources who spoke to Reuters in June ^[14]. Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said the mechanism rewards members that invest in upstream capacity ^[13].

The market backdrop is uncertain. OPEC puts the call on crude from members of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), the wider OPEC+ group, at 43.9 mb/d in 2027. That is about 1.8 mb/d above its 2026 estimate and compares with DoC output of 39.07 mb/d in September ^[15]. The agencies see a looser market. The EIA forecasts a 2027 surplus of 4.91 mb/d ^[16]. The IEA expects supply to rise by 7.7 mb/d in 2027 against demand growth of 2 mb/d ^[6]. OPEC+ will therefore be setting 2027 baselines for a market that most forecasters expect to swing from deficit to surplus once Gulf barrels return.

What to watch

Watch whether the 1 November meeting extends the pause into December and whether DeGolyer and MacNaughton delivers its report on time. On 29 November, the key outcomes are the new baselines, the fate of the 2022 cuts and any new compensation schedules. Outside the meeting room, the main signals are East-West pipeline and Hormuz flows, the pace of attacks on Gulf infrastructure, and whether Saudi output closes the gap to its 10.478 mb/d target. Until those barrels flow freely, OPEC+ spare capacity will remain largely theoretical.

Alupetra follows OPEC+ policy and Gulf supply developments from its Istanbul, London and Dubai offices.