Europe Without Gulf LNG: Can the EU Get Through Winter 2026–27?

How much LNG did Europe import from Qatar and the Gulf?

Europe enters the 2026–27 gas winter with LNG scarce and prices at their highest since 2022 ^[10]. Its direct reliance on Gulf LNG was modest; the larger problem is the loss of Gulf supply to the world market as a whole.

More than 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, including about 93% of Qatar's and 96% of the United Arab Emirates' LNG exports. Almost 90% of those volumes went to Asia and just over 10% to Europe ^[1]. ENTSOG, the association of Europe's gas transmission system operators, puts Qatar's share of EU LNG imports in 2025 at around 8%, with exposure varying by member state ^[2]. Eurostat trade data show a share of 10.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 ^[3].

That supply has almost disappeared. The IEA reports that Qatari and Emirati LNG supply fell by more than 300 million cubic metres a day from 1 March, and that Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefaction complex, has been offline since an attack on 2 March ^[1]. Qatar's share of EU LNG imports fell to 0.3% in the second quarter ^[3]. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) calculates that EU imports of Qatari LNG were 5.1 bcm lower year on year in January–August ^[5].

Some Qatari exports have resumed, but not to Europe. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) puts combined Qatari and Emirati exports at just above 2 bcm a month, against more than 10 bcm before the crisis, with about half going to Gulf importers. It reports that Gulf LNG deliveries to Europe have been halted since the conflict began and that QatarEnergy has extended force majeure through November for some customers ^[4]. Kpler tracked 20 Qatari cargo loadings in September and 13 in the first 13 days of October ^[6]. We covered the knock-on effects for gas and fertiliser prices in LNG, Gas Prices and Urea in 2026.

For Europe, the bigger effect is indirect. Asian buyers who lost Gulf cargoes now compete for the same flexible Atlantic supply. Between March and June, Asian spot prices averaged a premium of $2.1/MBtu over European prices, which drew flexible cargoes away from Europe ^[7].

Europe gas winter 2026: how full is storage?

Storage is Europe's main winter buffer, and it is low. EU stocks stood at 28% on 1 April, below the starting level of the previous three summers. ACER, the EU energy regulators' agency, said the reference target was 90% by 1 November and that reaching it would need LNG imports about 13% above 2025 levels ^[8]. In March the European Commission asked member states to use the flexibility in the Gas Storage Regulation and consider lowering their filling target to 80% ^[9].

Injections were slow. Summer prices traded above winter forward prices, which removed the commercial incentive to store gas. By 12 September storage was 68.04% full, against 80.12% a year earlier and the lowest for the time of year since records began in 2011 ^[5]. On 1 October the EU average was 72%, about 811 TWh, compared with 83% a year earlier ^[2].

There has been little catch-up since. On 25 October EU storage was 74.62% full, against a five-year average of about 86% for the date, and several countries had started withdrawing gas. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen puts the shortfall against last year at roughly 100 TWh, the equivalent of more than 80 large LNG carriers ^[10]. Germany and the Netherlands were only just above 60% in mid-October ^[6]. In July Wood Mackenzie had warned that storage would reach 75% at best by 1 November, against a five-year average of 90% ^[11].

How far have TTF gas prices risen?

Before the crisis, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) month-ahead contract traded at about €32.7/MWh in early February, and ABN AMRO expected prices to ease to around €26/MWh in summer 2026 ^[12]. Instead, TTF reached about €61.85/MWh ($21/MBtu) in mid-March, traded mostly between €40 and €50/MWh in the second quarter and touched about €83.53/MWh ($28/MBtu) in mid-September ^[4].

In October the rally resumed. Kpler put TTF at $28.59/MBtu on 14 October, up more than 11% in a week and its highest in more than three years ^[6]. On 26 October the front-month contract rose to as much as €95.73/MWh, more than $30/MBtu and its highest since 2022, after a 7% gain the previous week ^[10]. Wood Mackenzie has stressed that this is "not 2022": prices remain below the post-invasion records, and renewables have reduced the power sector's exposure to gas ^[11].

What is replacing Gulf LNG in Europe's supply mix?

LNG makes up around half of EU gas imports ^[8]. Total EU gas imports in January–August were roughly flat year on year at about 200 bcm, with LNG down about 3.5% and pipeline gas up 2.5% ^[5]. The main sources are:

• United States: about 60% of EU LNG imports so far in 2026, rising to 70% in August ^[5]. Eurostat puts the US share at 63.2% in the second quarter ^[3].
• Norway: about half of EU pipeline gas imports, or 51.2% in the second quarter ^[3]. Norwegian pipeline supply was 29.3 bcm in the third quarter, against 28.7 bcm a year earlier ^[4], and the system is running close to full capacity ^[5]. Constraints at the Troll field helped lift prices in mid-October ^[14].
• Algeria: 18.2% of EU pipeline imports and 8.1% of LNG imports in the second quarter ^[3]. Flows through the Transmed pipeline to Italy fell from 5.5–5.9 bcm in the second quarter to 4.3–4.5 bcm in the third ^[4].
• Azerbaijan: the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) added 1.2 bcm a year of long-term capacity from 1 January 2026 ^[13]. Azerbaijani deliveries in the third quarter were 2.82 bcm, slightly below 3.08 bcm a year earlier ^[4].
• Russia: still 17.3% of EU LNG imports in the second quarter ^[3]. The EU ban on Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts takes effect on 1 January 2027 ^[5].

The net result is less LNG, not more. European LNG sendout was 27.9 bcm in the third quarter, 4.2 bcm lower than a year earlier ^[4].

Can the EU get through winter? What ENTSOG, the Commission and the IEA say

ENTSOG's winter outlook, published in October, concludes that the gas system is "sufficiently flexible" to meet demand, while describing the starting storage level as historically low ^[2]. Its main findings are:

• Reference winter: storage ends March at 29% with optimal LNG supply, but only 13% if LNG is tight. About 96 bcm of LNG would be needed over winter to end at 30% ^[2].
• Cold winter: with demand 19% above last winter, storage falls to 11% and demand response or uncovered demand reaches 7% with optimal LNG and 12% with tight LNG ^[2].
• Regional limits: landlocked countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe may find it harder to secure LNG. Regasification capacity is about 145 bcm per winter ^[2].
• Next summer: storage reaches 90% by the end of September 2027 with optimal LNG, but only 65% with tight LNG ^[2].

After the Gas Coordination Group met, the Commission said "the EU gas system has sufficient flexibility to meet demand this winter". It argued that the situation differs from 2021–22 because supplies are more diversified, LNG import capacity is higher and demand is lower ^[15].

The IEA's July forecast assumed that Hormuz would fully reopen in the third quarter, with Qatari and Emirati deliveries ramping up from July to October. Even then, it warned that markets "could remain tighter than had been previously expected over the next two years" ^[7]. That recovery has not happened: OIES says a restart depends on a political agreement ^[4]. The agency's next assessment, with a special section on winter in Europe, is due on 3 November ^[16].

What are the main risks for Europe's gas supply this winter?

• Weather. IEEFA notes that the weather will largely decide how tight supply becomes ^[5]. Colder forecasts for Europe were already lifting TTF in mid-October ^[14].
• Asian competition. By late October Asian spot prices had also reached their highest since 2022 ^[10]. Kpler has trimmed its 2026 LNG demand forecasts for China to 61.3 million tonnes and South Korea to 46.6 million tonnes, which could limit Asian bidding ^[6].
• The Russian LNG ban. The 1 January 2027 deadline falls in mid-winter, removing a supplier of about a sixth of EU LNG ^[3,5].
• A harder 2027 refill. OIES expects low stocks at the end of winter and a challenging refill in 2027 ^[4]. Wood Mackenzie expects elevated prices "through this winter and into 2027" ^[11].

What to watch

The key indicators are weekly Gas Infrastructure Europe storage data against ENTSOG's paths, and the Asia–Europe price gap that steers flexible US cargoes. Other markers are whether QatarEnergy's force majeure runs beyond November, the IEA's winter assessment on 3 November ^[16] and how buyers replace Russian LNG from 1 January. IEEFA argues that demand reduction is the biggest lever within Europe's own control ^[5].

Alupetra follows European gas and LNG markets from its offices in Istanbul, London and Dubai.