Helium Shortage 5.0? Lessons From Past Shortages and the 2027 Outlook

What is Helium Shortage 5.0?

The helium shortage that began in March 2026 is the fifth major supply crisis in about two decades, and industry analysts cited by the risk consultancy Exiger have labelled it "Helium Shortage 5.0" ^[1]. Helium is recovered as a by-product of natural gas processing, so when gas plants stop, helium output stops too ^[1]. After US and Israeli military operations against Iran began on 28 February, QatarEnergy halted LNG and associated production at Ras Laffan on 2 March and declared force majeure on 4 March ^[1].

Qatar produced an estimated 63 million cubic metres (m³) of helium in 2025, out of a world total of about 190 million m³, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). Only the United States produced more ^[2]. Iranian missile strikes in mid-March damaged two of Qatar's 14 liquefaction trains, removing about 17% of its LNG export capacity. QatarEnergy chief executive Saad Al Kaabi said repairs would take three to five years ^[3].

Helium shortage history: Shortages 1.0 to 4.0

Writing in 2022, Physics Today noted supply deficits in 2006–07, 2011–13 and 2018–20, followed by the 2022 shortage that Kornbluth named "Shortage 4.0" ^[4]. The US International Trade Commission (USITC) uses slightly different dates: 2005–07, 2012–13, 2018–20 and a fourth shortage from 2021 ^[5].

Shortage 1.0 (2006–07). Scientific groups had long warned of a shortage once the federal helium reserve, which then met about 40% of US needs, was sold under a 1996 law ^[6]. The 2006–07 shortage had a different cause. New Algerian and existing Qatari plants were not yet at full rate, US and Algerian facilities had shutdowns, and low pressure stalled a US pipeline ^[6]. Demand was also rising with semiconductor, display and optical fibre manufacturing in East Asia ^[6].

Shortage 2.0 (2011–13). The second deficit lasted roughly two years ^[4,5]. In 2013 Congress passed the Helium Stewardship Act, which directed the eventual sale of the federal helium system ^[7].

Shortage 3.0 (2018–20). The third had a geopolitical trigger. According to the USITC, the blockade of Qatar that began in June 2017 cut off about 30% of global supply and left the market in a 10–15% deficit ^[5]. In 2019, maintenance outages at ExxonMobil's helium plant in Wyoming and at a plant in Algeria temporarily widened the deficit to about 40%. Refiners sourcing from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) system were on allocation, and some customers reported longer lead times ^[5].

Shortage 4.0 (2022–23). The fourth combined several outages. The BLM's Crude Helium Enrichment Unit in Texas was down from around 10 January to 10 June 2022, removing more than 10% of global capacity ^[8]. Fires in October 2021 and January 2022 set back Gazprom's new Amur plant in eastern Russia. Two of Qatar's three helium plants had planned maintenance, and Algerian output fell as gas was diverted to replace lost Russian supply ^[8]. Four of the five major suppliers declared force majeure and rationed customers to 45–60% of contracted volumes ^[4]. Prices for most users rose by 50–100% ^[8].

How did the helium market rebalance each time?

Each shortage ended through a mix of new supply, weaker demand and more efficient use.

• New capacity. In 2007 Kornbluth, then at Matheson Tri-Gas, expected the market to improve once the Qatari plant reached full capacity ^[6]. Shortage 4.0 eased as Amur restarted. Gazprom reported delivering 110 containers by the end of 2023, and the plant was believed to be supplying at least 500 containers a year, roughly an 8% increase in global supply ^[9].
• Lower demand. Shortage 3.0 was eased by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as new helium sources also came online ^[5]. In 2023 weaker chip demand helped end Shortage 4.0, while newer MRI scanners that use less helium kept replacing older models ^[9]. Kornbluth Helium Consulting judged that it ended by early 2024 ^[9].
• Recycling. Labs began switching to closed-cycle "dry" cryostats in 2007 ^[6]. By 2022 a Northwestern University system was recovering about 70% of the helium used there ^[4]. The USGS says closed-loop recycling is becoming more common, although large-volume users still seldom recycle ^[2].

Prices adjust more slowly. Kornbluth observed in 2023 that when past shortages gave way to oversupply, the industry typically kept about half of the price increase ^[10]. One former buffer has also gone: the BLM sold the Federal Helium System to Messer in June 2024 and transferred $460 million to the US Treasury ^[7].

What the 2026 disruption shares with past shortages, and how it differs

Several features are familiar. As in 2017, the shock started in Qatar, and suppliers are again expected to protect critical users first ^[6,8]. Kornbluth told Reuters in March that MRI systems and rocket makers would probably receive all of their needs and semiconductor makers about 95%, while welding, diving and party balloons would face deeper cuts ^[11]. Kornbluth said spot prices had doubled, while Anish Kapadia of AKAP Energy saw early increases of about 50% ^[11]. The USGS put the 2025 base price for Grade-A helium at about $330 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), before surcharges ^[2].

The differences are larger. Exiger notes that this crisis combines a production shutdown, a logistics blockade and an active conflict with no defined end date ^[1].

• Physical damage. Earlier outages were mostly fires, breakdowns or planned maintenance. In 2026 two LNG trains were damaged, and a gas-to-liquids facility is expected to be offline for at least a year ^[3].
• Scale. Exiger estimated that the shutdown removed about 5.2 million m³ a month ^[1]. Kapadia expected about 30% of Qatar's 2026 helium volumes, or 11% of global supply, to be lost ^[12].
• Logistics. Exiger estimated that about a third of the world's cryogenic helium ISO containers were stranded in or around Qatar, and that repositioning them would take at least three months. Liquid helium evaporates within roughly 45 days ^[1].
• Russia. Amur helped end Shortage 4.0. In 2026 Russia imposed helium export controls from 14 April ^[13], and Pulsar Helium, citing Reuters, says they run until the end of 2027 ^[14]. EU and US bans on imports of Russian helium also remained in place in 2025 ^[2].
• Better-prepared buyers. Mohammad Ahmad of Z2Data told AGBI that chipmakers had built larger inventories and improved recycling since the pandemic ^[12]. Six new US helium operations also started in 2025, and a storage cavern opened in Beaumont, Texas ^[2].

Helium outlook 2027: three scenarios

The 2027 outlook depends mainly on the Strait of Hormuz and the restart of Qatar's undamaged trains. In October the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) reported that QatarEnergy's force majeure had been extended through November for some clients. Qatari and Emirati LNG exports were just above 2 billion cubic metres (bcm) a month, against more than 10 bcm before the crisis ^[15]. For the gas-market side, see our analysis of LNG, gas prices and urea in 2026. The scenarios below summarise published views; they are not forecasts.

Scenario 1: an early restart. QatarEnergy has indicated that it could restore about 50% of LNG capacity within a month of safe passage through the Strait and about 80% within two months ^[3]. Helium output at Ras Laffan depends on that LNG restart ^[3]. Container repositioning would take at least three more months ^[1], and the two damaged trains would stay out for three to five years ^[3]. If the pattern Kornbluth described holds, prices would ease without fully returning to pre-crisis levels ^[10].

Scenario 2: a prolonged disruption. OIES saw bleak prospects for a Gulf LNG restart before the US midterm elections in November at the earliest ^[15]. Allocation would then remain the main balancing tool. Kapadia warned that a sustained disruption could take prices back to past shortage peaks above $2,000/Mcf ^[11]. IUMI, citing analysts, noted that a prolonged disruption could raise contract prices by 40–60% ^[13].

Scenario 3: new capacity later in the decade. In 2023 Kornbluth expected a fourth Qatari helium plant to add about 1.5 billion cubic feet a year in 2027, leaving supply plentiful by the decade's end ^[8]. In January 2026 Al Kaabi said Qatar's helium capacity would more than double with the North Field LNG expansion ^[16]. OIES notes that the first North Field East train had targeted the first half of 2027, but its timing is now in question ^[15]. In the US, Wyoming's Dry Piney project is not expected to start commercial operations until summer 2028 ^[1].

What to watch

• Hormuz transit and QatarEnergy's monthly force majeure notices ^[15].
• The restart of Qatar's 12 undamaged trains and repairs to the two damaged ones ^[3].
• Russia's helium export controls, reported to run until the end of 2027 ^[14].
• Surcharges and contract renewals, which will show how much of the price increase suppliers keep ^[2,10].
• The timing of North Field East and new US projects ^[1,15].

Alupetra does not trade helium; it follows the LNG and gas-market developments that shape helium supply from its offices in Istanbul, London and Dubai.